Re: Hurricane Elida

Posted by Rob Lindsay on July 15, 2008, 1:42 am, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Elida"
75.158.111.240

Here are some solutions to the acronyms you posted. Hopefully not too wordy or complicated!! GFDL...UKMET...ECMWF.....HWRF....NOGAPS....GFS.... ?? GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/ GFDL's mission is to be a world leader in the production of timely and reliable knowledge and assessments on natural climate variability and anthropogenic changes and in the development of the required earth system models. GFDL works cooperatively in NOAA to advance its expert assessments of changes in national and global climate through research, improved models, and products. NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is a U.S. federal agency focused on the condition of the oceans and the atmosphere. UKMET - United Kingdom METeorological Agency http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ Hurricane model forecast (UKMET) ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts http://www.ecmwf.int/ An international organisation supported by 31 States. providing operational medium- and extended-range forecasts and a state-of-the-art super-computing facility for scientific research. HWRF - Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/HWRF/index.html The Weather Research and Forecast system for hurricane prediction, e.g. the HWRFTM, became operational at NCEP in 2007. This advanced hurricane prediction system was developed at the NWS/NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) to address the Nation's next generation hurricane forecast problems. The HWRFTM will have the capability to fully address the intensity, structure, and rainfall forecast problems in addition to advancing wave and storm surge forecasts. Also, continued advancements in track prediction will remain an important focus of this prediction system. The HWRFTM is a high resolution coupled air-sea-land prediction model with a movable nested grid and advanced physics for high resolution. To address the totality of the hurricane forecast problems noted above, the HWRFTM will include coupling to a nested wave model that will eventually be coupled to a dynamic storm surge model. Additionally, the land surface component will also serve as input to hydrology and inundation models to address the hurricane-related inland flooding problem. For initialization of the hurricane core circulation, an advanced data assimilation method was developed at EMC that will make use of real-time airborne Doppler radar data from NOAA's high altitude jet to initialize the three dimensional storm scale structure. The usage of real-time data in the HWRFTM hurricane core, together with the higher resolution of the model, will allow for more accurate hurricane predictions of intensity and structure. NOGAPS – (U. S.) Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml NOGAPS Seven-Day Weather Forecast U.S. Navy NOGAPS Weather Forecast From the U. S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System GFS - Unisys Weather: GFS Model Forecasts - http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/ This is a set of contour plots using data from the GFS forecast model. The output fields are consistent with other models so the models can be compared. This model gives forecast information out to 72 hours. Lower Tropospheric Flow - The flow of air in the lower section of the troposhere Troposphere The lowest layer of the atmosphere is called the troposphere. It ranges in thickness from 8km at the poles to 16km over the equator. The troposphere is bounded above by the tropopause, a boundary marked by stable temperatures. Above the troposphere is the stratosphere. Although variations do occur, temperature usually declines with increasing altitude in the troposphere. Hill walkers know that it will be several degrees cooler on the top of a mountain than in the valley below. The troposphere is denser than the layers of the atmosphere above it (because of the weight compressing it), and it contains up to 75% of the mass of the atmosphere. It is primarily composed of nitrogen (78%) and oxygen (21%) with only small concentrations of other trace gases. Nearly all atmospheric water vapour or moisture is found in the troposphere. The troposphere is the layer where most of the world's weather takes place. Since temperature decreases with altitude in the troposphere, warm air near the surface of the Earth can readily rise, being less dense than the colder air above it. In fact air molecules can travel to the top of the troposphere and back down again in a just a few days. Such vertical movement or convection of air generates clouds and ultimately rain from the moisture within the air, and gives rise to much of the weather which we experience. The troposphere is capped by the tropopause, a region of stable temperature. Air temperature then begins to rise in the stratosphere. Such a temperature increase prevents much air convection beyond the tropopause, and consequently most weather phenomena, including towering cumulonimbus thunderclouds, are confined to the troposphere. Sometimes the temperature does not decrease with height in the troposphere, but increases. Such a situation is known as a temperature inversion. Temperature inversions limit or prevent the vertical mixing of air. Such atmospheric stability can lead to air pollution episodes with air pollutants emitted at ground level becoming trapped underneath the temperature inversion.

Be sure to visit www.lamanzanilla.info