Re: Hurricane Elida
Posted by deanna on July 14, 2008, 7:02 pm, in reply to "Hurricane Elida"
I can't resist reprinting the 4 PM update from NHC: |
"After that...(3 days from now) Elida should proceed westward at a slightly slower rate as it is advected along in the lower tropospheric flow. The
track forecast is the consensus of the GFDL...UKMET...and ECMWF models...as the HWRF has a much stronger ridge north of Elida and NOGAPS maintains too large a vortex too late in the forecast period. The GFS model also portrays a unrealistic-looking fujiwara interaction with a secondary vorticity lobe to the southeast of
Elida...so this model too is downplayed. The track forecast is similar to the previous prediction through three days...but slightly north of the earlier forecast at days 4 and 5".
Makes you wonder who they think reads these updates (and I really wish I knew what a fujiwara interaction is).
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