La Message Board Archives

Re: T.S. Odile update

Posted by deanna on October 11, 2008, 10:33 am, in reply to "T.S. Odile update"

Here's the 10AM update:

it is very difficult to find the center of Odile within this large but shapeless cloud pattern which is distorted by shear and by the interaction with land. The center appears to be located in the northeastern portion of the convective mass and this position matches with extrapolation. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed and with no other data at this time...the initial intensity is kept at 55 knots. Once again statistical intensity guidance brings Odile to
hurricane status but global models as well as the sophisticated GFDL and HWRF models weaken the cyclone. Given the current organization and increasing shear...and assuming that the center
will continue over water...the official forecast calls for a slight increase in intensity during the next day or so with little change thereafter. This follows the statistical guidance and the previous forecast.

The best estimate of the initial motion is 300 degrees at 7 knots. Odile is moving around the southwestern periphery of a strong middle level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico...and as the ridge
expands will probably force Odile on a more west and even west-southwest track. This is the solution indicated in the official forecast which follows my predecessor. However...this forecast is highly uncertain since dynamical guidance is highly difluent. Half of the dynamical models move Odile toward the
northwest bringing it inland in a day or so and the other half turned the cyclone southwestward. They all have one thing in common...they basically dissipate the cyclone rather quickly.

An Air Force reconnaissance plane is currently heading toward Odile so we will know more this afternoon.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 11/1500z 17.2n 101.7w 55 kt
12hr VT 12/0000z 17.8n 103.0w 60 kt
24hr VT 12/1200z 18.1n 104.0w 60 kt
36hr VT 13/0000z 18.3n 105.4w 60 kt
48hr VT 13/1200z 18.3n 106.3w 55 kt
72hr VT 14/1200z 18.0n 107.0w 55 kt
96hr VT 15/1200z 17.5n 108.0w 55 kt
120hr VT 16/1200z 17.0n 109.0w 50 kt

forecaster Avila

I hope that's perfectly clear! What I got out of
it is that the forecasters don't really know WHAT
THIS STORM IS GOING TO DO (where have I heard that
before?). Let's hope the hurricane hunter comes up with a little more guidance this afternoon.

CNA has put up a hurricane watch for the Mexican
coast from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo.


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