4 PM Odile update....
Posted by deanna on October 11, 2008, 4:10 pm
It sure feels like a storm is coming - light rain, |
some wind and lots of clouds. Here's the 4 PM
report from NHC (the forecaster waxes a little poetic toward the end):
Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on October 11, 2008
"I will have to make significant changes in both track and intensity forecasts in this advisory. An Air Force reconnaissance plane on its way to Norbert...went through Odile and found a very
disorganized tropical cyclone. In fact...the flight level winds were quite weak and the SFMR measured 40 to 45 knots in small area near the center"....(this goes on and on so I deleted most of it)......
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SINCE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE NOT AVAILABLE. HOWEVER MOST OF THE MODELS DO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER MEXICO
AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE A WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE CYCLONE. ODILLE SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND WEST SOON AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ODILE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...HAS REALLY FOOLED ME AS ODILE...THE EVIL CHARACTER IN THE BALLET SWAN LAKE...FOOLED THE PRINCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.9N 102.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.6N 104.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 19.3N 106.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 19.5N 107.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 19.5N 108.0W 25 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 19.5N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 110.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
See the forecast positions above for 12 and 24 hrs. - those locations are pretty close to L.M. and with fairly strong winds if the predictions are correct. I suggest battening down the hatches a little but unless something changes this will not be terribly exciting. There will be another bulletin at 7 PM and the Mexican government still has tropical storm warnings up along the coast as far north as Manzanillo.
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