Re: Tropical Depression 7-E
Posted by deanna on August 6, 2010, 11:40 am, in reply to "Re: Tropical Depression 7-E"
187.146.126.217
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Larry and Ken nailed it so I won't expand on their explanations. The wording below from NHC's last "discussion" shows how much of each forecast is uncertain, even for the experts. All it would take to create storm conditions on this coast is a turn toward the northwest today or tomorrow. We just have to wait and see. Note their last sentence - "this remains a low confidence forecast"......: ..."The initial motion estimate is the same as previous...290/9... although this is pretty uncertain due to the lack of microwave imagery over the past several hours. Weak ridging over Mexico should continue to steer the depression toward the west-northwest for the next day or two. Thereafter...there is some disagreement on whether the cyclone would turn more to the northwest due to a break in the ridge...or continue a more westward track at that time. Generally the global models favor a more southern track...while the HWRF/GFDL and the BAMS guidance are on the northern side of the guidance envelope. The NHC forecast will stay close to the consensus at this time...which is farther south and slower than 6 hours ago. This remains a low confidence forecast due to the large spread in the track model guidance". |
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