Re: computer models
Posted by deanna on August 23, 2010, 8:29 am, in reply to "computer models"
187.146.80.168
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They input different scenarios into each computer, based on possible weather conditions that might affect the storm as it moves along, then select the most logical path somewhere in the middle of those possibilities. This excerpt from this A.M.'s Discussion shows the process: "A mid-tropospheric ridge over the southwestern U.S. And northern Mexico is forecast to remain in place through 72 hours. This flow pattern should produce a west-northwestward track for Frank over the next few days. Late in the forecast period ...the ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone is forecast to weaken and a slowing of the forward speed is predicted by days 4 to 5. The GFDL/HWRF/ GFS models take Frank quite close to the southwest coast of Mexico in about 3 days...whereas the model consensus is farther offshore. The official forecast is similar to...but just a tad to the north of...the previous one". So it's really just an educated guess. The next complete update will be at 10 AM our time. |
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