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Tropical Depression 2-E

Posted by deanna on June 19, 2011, 9:59 am

This is starting to be interesting:
(Cat. 1 hurricane near us on Tuesday morning?)

Watches and warnings
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Tecpan de Galeana westward to Punta San Telmo.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo westward to Manzanillo.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

From the latest EPAC Tropical Weather Discussion:

Given the difficulty in locating the center overnight...the
initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 295/8. The global models and ensemble means are in good agreement on the evolution of the synoptic steering through the period. The subtropical ridge north of the cyclone will begin to weaken later today as a longwave trough progresses from The Rockies into the central United States in the next 48 to 72 hours. The weakness in the ridge will allow the cyclone to gain some latitude and bring the center close to the coast of Mexico in 36 to 48 hours. After that time...the trough will move eastward...allowing the ridge to re-strengthen north of the cyclone...which should induce a turn back toward the west. A westward motion is expected to continue at days 4 and 5 as the cyclone weakens and is steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope through 36 hours and a little to the left of the consensus as the cyclone makes it closest approach to the coast.

Based on the official forecast...the government of Mexico has issued
a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the
coast at this time.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 19/1500z 13.7n 99.9w 30 kt 35 mph
12h 20/0000z 14.4n 101.0w 40 kt 45 mph
24h 20/1200z 15.6n 102.1w 50 kt 60 mph
36h 21/0000z 17.0n 103.0w 60 kt 70 mph
48h 21/1200z 18.4n 104.1w 65 kt 75 mph ** pretty close!
72h 22/1200z 19.5n 107.0w 55 kt 65 mph
96h 23/1200z 20.0n 110.5w 35 kt 40 mph
120h 24/1200z 20.0n 114.0w 25 kt 30 mph...Post-trop/remnt low

Rain for sure, not too sure about the rest!

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