Monday. 10 AM update:

Posted by deanna on June 20, 2011, 10:06 am, in reply to "Re: Beatriz update:"
187.146.115.164

No real change, still heading right toward us: 800 AM PDT MON JUN 20 2011 ...BEATRIZ A LITTLE STRONGER...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... LOCATION...16.3N 102.9W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE - same as before DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST. BEATRIZ IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE BEATRIZ LATER TODAY AND PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF ITS STRENGTH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO...JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. Time to start bringing in the outdoor furniture and stocking up on ice (and wine - thanks for the reminder, Julie!).

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