More rain...

Posted by deanna on July 15, 2011, 8:52 am
187.146.126.102

....slow, steady rain this morning. Excerpts from latest Tropical Weather Discussion: ..AT LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS...THE GFS MODEL DEPICTS DEEP LAYERED MONSOONAL FLOW ELONGATED NW TO SE FROM COASTAL MEXICO NEAR MANZANILLO TO COSTA RICA AND WRN PANAMA AND THE ADJACENT SW CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC WATERS. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ACROSS THIS REGION FROM 110W TO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO CONFIRM GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATING TWO CENTRAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS DEVELOPING EACH END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ONE ACROSS SW MEXICO...AND THE OTHER STRADDLING WRN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGEST SW TO WLY WINDS ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE PACIFIC WATERS OF COSTA RICA ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW...WHILE WLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT WERE SUGGESTED FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W. THESE ZONES OF FRESH MONSOONAL FLOW WERE AIDING IN THE INITIATION OF THE ABOVE DESCRIBED CONVECTION. ..... GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MONSOONAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE W TO E ALIGNED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ALLOW A BROAD SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE SW MEXICAN COAST LATE SAT... graphic: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/PACFUL_06Z.gif Looks like more rain, no sun for the next few days.

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