Monsoon trough action....

Posted by deanna on August 15, 2011, 5:21 pm
187.146.112.131

The dreaded monsoon trough is drifting north again and responsible for three systems in the Eastern Pacific, two of which are well on their way to Hawaii: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/PACFUL_18Z.gif ....... THE DEEP TROPICS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH WITH A STRING OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALL ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 11.5N94W...11.5N109W AND NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX E NEAR 12.0N 132.3W. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 11.5N 109W HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6-8 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...BUT DO MAINTAIN A WELL ORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 WINDS...MOVING WEST THROUGH THU. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW S OF THE LOW NEAR 11.5N94W AND WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS ARE MORE BULLISH ON THIS SYSTEM...AS ALL INDICATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT MOVES NW S OF MEXICO. Invest 99-E is a possibility though: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep201199_model.html http://www.stormpulse.com/pacific - (you'll have to arrow over to the right to see #3, which is now 99-E)

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