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Re: Batten down the hatches this weekend?

Posted by Bret B on October 6, 2011, 10:29 am, in reply to "Batten down the hatches this weekend?"

It's amazing how quickly the east Pacific perked up! There are two storms brewing way down SW of us. Tropical Storm Irwin is farther out and may not ever make it to landfall. Tropical Depression 10-E is the one Vicki is talking about. It's predicted to be a Cat 1 hurricane by the time it nears the Mexican coast several days from now. The latest prediction is MAYBE landfall on Tuesday near our part of the coast.

But keep in mind the preditions that far in advance have huge errors. The Stormpulse graphic shows the possible landing anywhere from Zihuatanejo to Mazatlan. Exerpt from the NHC discussion (
"It is important to not focus on the exact track forecast at days 4 and 5 as the average track error in the eastern Pacific basin at that time frame is about 175 to 225 miles."

One things for sure, this bears watching. These late-season storms are somewhat unpredictable, mostly because of the influence from the fall cold fronts and their associated low-pressure troughs that sweep down through the southwestern US this time of year. (One of those is what will cause this storm to bend to the right toward the Mexican coast.)

Stay tuned!

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