Re: TS Jova
Posted by Bret B on October 7, 2011, 7:20 pm, in reply to "TS Jova"
Since it's still 3.5 days in the future, Jova's forecast landfall point keeps fluctuating; currently it's projected to land about 20 miles north of us PLUS OR MINUS 180 MILES OR SO. The error window includes all of the coast between Michoacan (south of Colima) almost up to Mazatlan. So it's definitely too early to panic, but it wouldn't hurt to make some initial preparations. Especially since the forecast intensity at landfall is back up to as high as Cat 3. |
Like they say: "Plan for the worst and hope for the best."
I don't know where the wave height predictions on surf-forecast.com come from, but to me 31 feet seems unlikely in our bay, even from a nearby Cat 3 hurricane.
I know of no authority generating storm surge predictions for our coast, but surge would be worst if a major hurricane passed just to our north (the surge is worst on a hurricane's "right" side.) And our bay might amplify the surge. The winds are a little stronger on that side also.
Heavy rains are a more sure bet, even if it misses us by a lot. They depend on how wide the storm is as it gets closer. I don't think we'll feel any affects until sometime Monday.
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