Re: Hurricane Jova - Monday AM update

Posted by Bret B on October 10, 2011, 12:33 pm, in reply to "Hurricane Jova"
187.146.84.254

It's still heading more and more our way! You should take advantage of today's calm/dry-ish weather to finish whatever preparations you need to make. Also be prepared for the power to go out anytime after the heavy rains begin (tonight? tomorrow?), and possibly stay out for a long time (we've had 32 hr outages before, for lesser hurricanes.) ALERTS: 1. The Jalisco Civil Protection alarm system in the Jardin (big orange tower) announced a "yellow" alert today around 9:00AM. They recommended to know where your local shelter is (I haven't found that out yet), and to have valuables and important documents ready in case you have to evacuate suddenly. 2. The Mexican gov't has issued a Hurricane Warning for our coast (from down in Michoacan up to Cabo Corrientes between here and P.V.) That means that a hurricane is expected, and tropical storm conditions are LIKELY in the warning area (making outside preparations difficult) within the next 36 hrs. WHERE: The latest track centerline shows landfall directly on Barra de Navidad (10 miles SE of La Manzanilla), and the track error radius is shrinking but still is plus or minus 90 miles (145 km.) That means it COULD land anywhere from upper Michoacan up to offshore of Nayarit. At 10AM it was 245 miles (394 km) SW of us. WHEN: Landfall time is predicted to be Tuesday night (10PM-midnight?), but even that still has a few hour error window. STRENGTH: It's a Category 3 storm right now with 125mph/201kph winds in the eye wall, and is projected grow to Cat 4, then back down to Cat 3 with 125mph/201kph winds a few hours before landfall. It might lose some strength just before landfall. SIZE: Tropical storm force winds (greater than 39mph/63kph) are predicted to extend out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center at landfall. Rains even farther out. Tuesday morning the first breezes could begin to arrive. Rains probably earlier than that. Deanna's link(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/145011.shtml?hwind120#contents) shows that our chance of getting hurricane winds (74mph/119kph) here in La Manz are 30%, and chance of tropical storm winds (39mph/63kph) is 90%. Don't forget the danger of storm surge flooding, for everyone living close to sea level (including Donna and I!) Under worst-case hurricane conditions, the sea level can rise many feet. When you add the big waves and a bit of a high tide Tuesday night around 10PM, that could get dangeous. Remember Katrina? At least we don't actually live BELOW sea level, like some of New Orleans! Plan accordingly, and hope it doesn't land here! LINKS: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep201110_5day.html?MR=1 http://www.stormpulse.com/pacific/tropical-storm-jova-2011 http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=60:aviso-del-pacifico&catid=4&Itemid=63 More after the 4PM updates.

403

Be sure to visit www.lamanzanilla.info