Mexico News Review 1

Posted by the Generals on October 30, 2011, 6:58 pm
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Subject: Mexico News SECURITY & STRATEGIC REVIEW August 2011 NOTE: A lot here, but a great overview. The first article even has BCS news - a surprising number of Navy operations. BC Security & Strategic Review August 2011 (ISSN 1741-4202) MEXICO: More data, but aspects of the conflict remain unclear A database set up by the presidency shows that in 2010, fatalities in armed confrontations involving cartel gunmen and government forces, increased almost threefold. Is this an indication that the nature of the war is changing, from one overwhelmingly dominated by inter-cartel fighting, to one in which government action against the cartels is increasing exponentially? Not quite, even with much more information now being made available. Official information on details of the drive against the cartels and the inter-cartel wars has tended to emerge as a result of legislative demands or requests filed by individuals or organisations under freedom of information legislation, through the Instituto Federal de Acceso a la Información y Protección de Datos (IFAI), an agency of the executive with the power to compel other agencies to respond. So far this has not guaranteed thoroughness or clarity from the agencies most directly involved: the federal chief prosecutor’s office (PGR), the federal public security minister (SSP, in charge of the federal police), the defence ministry (Sedena, in charge of the army and the air force) and the navy ministry (Semar). Now the presidency has made available to the public, online, a database of fatalities due to ‘presumed criminal rivalry’ (‘fallecimientos ocurridos por presunta rivalidad delincuencial’). This provides state-by-state data (including events in main hotspots within the states) on fatalities between December 2006, when President Felipe Calderón took office, and end-2010. It also provides the rationale for the classification of these fatalities, a step in the direction demanded by legislators and members of the public who want the government to explain how it comes up with its low tally of ‘innocent’ or ‘uninvolved’ victims of the drug-related violence [SSR-11-08]. Shortcomings It is a short step, with several shortcomings. The methodology does not include a category for the presumed ‘uninvolved’ victims. Two of the categories used are fairly clear, in that they identify the killers as suspected ‘members of criminal groups’: ‘executions’, the largest category, in which the victims are persons not connected to the government (implicitly presumed to include a majority of ‘involved’ people), and ‘aggressions’, the smallest category, in which the targets — persons, installations and equipment — are connected to the government. The middle category, ‘clashes’, muddies the waters by indiscriminately including both sustained armed confrontations between the authorities and cartel gunmen, and between rival cartels. Neither in ‘aggressions’ nor ‘clashes’ are government casualties disaggregated, and in the latter, there is no indication if the initiator of a clash was the government or cartel gunmen. Analysis is not helped by the fact that information, summarised in graphic form for the public, lumps together both of these categories. Another shortcoming is that the data in the presidential database, which includes information from federal, state and municipal sources, is not easy to square with the separate, partial reports from Sedena and Semar. Fatalities en engagements between cartels & security forces As reported by the presidency; 2007-20091 KILLED IN ‘AGGRESSIONS’ KILLED IN ‘CLASHES’ 2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010 Tamaulipas - - 2 45 7 26 40 590 Chihuahua 7 6 16 54 2 72 50 125 Guerrero 10 3 13 27 5 34 78 145 Nuevo León 6 - 4 28 7 11 41 191 Sinaloa 1 17 11 11 11 106 28 83 Durango - 4 4 6 17 56 75 94 Michoacán 8 - 16 24 29 32 57 64 Baja California 0 2 17 4 14 48 19 13 Jalisco - 5 7 21 - 7 24 66 Nayarit - - 1 3 - 3 8 99 Coahuila - - 1 9 1 20 21 39 México - 10 2 25 1 18 15 24 Veracruz - - 2 3 15 13 6 27 Zacatecas .. .. .. .. 6 7 23 11 Guanajuato 2 - 3 3 1 14 23 5 Morelos 1 - - 5 2 7 15 18 San Luis Potosí - - 1 14 5 - 1 25 Chiapas - 3 2 2 2 13 7 8 Oaxaca 1 2 1 3 7 13 2 7 Sonora 9 2 2 6 28 42 19 63 Aguascalientes 0 4 2 4 5 5 2 2 Hidalgo .. .. .. .. - 1 16 7 Mexico City .. .. .. .. - 5 4 13 Tabasco 3 1 - - 1 5 6 4 Puebla - 1 4 4 - 4 2 3 Colima - - - 2 - 1 - 12 Campeche 1 - - - 2 - - 1 Quintana Roo .. .. .. .. - - - 1 Querétaro - - - 1 - - - 1 Tlaxcala .. .. .. .. - - 1 1 Baja California Sur .. .. .. .. - - - 1 TOTAL 56 60 111 286 168 566 583 1742 1None were recorded in December 2006, the first month of the Calderón administration. States have been ranked according to total fatalities in these engagements in this period. Source: http://www.presidencia.gob.mx/base-de-datos-de-fallecimientos [own aggregation]. Rationale This is how the presidential database explains the rationale for fitting fatalities into its three categories: ‘Executions’ are intentional homicides, single or multiple, in which either victims or perpetrators are suspected members of criminal organisations. It must present at least two of the following features: - The victim shows signs of having been killed by a large-calibre firearm. - The victim shows signs of torture or serious injury. - The remains are found after the victim was executed, either on the scene of the crime or elsewhere. - Materials typical of the modus operandi are found in the scene of the crime. [TABLE] The army’s record: casualties of armed confrontations Jan 2007-May 20111 Deaths Injuries Deaths Injuries Tamaulipas 617 59 Jalisco 15 3 Nuevo León 317 43 Oaxaca 11 1 Guerrero 159 83 B. California 9 1 Durango 83 24 Guanajuato 8 3 Chihuahua 70 19 Sonora 7 3 Veracruz 62 15 Tabasco 5 5 Michoacán 48 16 E. México 4 2 Coahuila 44 14 Chiapas 4 4 Sinaloa 43 11 Querétaro 3 - Zacatecas 38 11 Aguascalientes 2 3 S. Luis Potosí 28 9 Hidalgo 1 1 Nayarit 42 4 Total 1,6202 291 1Ranked by number of deaths. 2The army reported own casualties as 571 killed and 105 injured. The army also reported 1,707 arrests. The total number of deaths in confrontations was later amended to 1,671 by late June. Source: Sedena disclosure via IFAI to Milenio. - Circumstances of the death include suspected link to criminal groups; previous abduction of the victim; killing in an ambush or a pursuit. - Messages from criminal groups are found. - In extraordinary cases, killings within prisons in which the participants are suspected members of criminal groups. ‘Clashes’ (enfrentamientos) are events involving the use of firearms and military-issue equipment, in which the security forces must use their weapons, or which involve confrontations between different criminal groups. To be included in this category the following features are considered: - The criminals involved must be at least three or, if fewer, must be using highly destructive military-issue weapons, and must resist the authorities violently. - The criminals cannot be subdued instantly or rapidly in a single tactical action. - The authorities respond to an aggression in a sustained exchange of fire. A pursuit following an aggression is not considered a clash unless the previous features are present. - The event, involving authorities at any level (federal, state, municipal), takes place during an operation ordered by the authorities against the criminals (freeing of hostages, searches, execution of court orders), or during patrols and in reaction to the ostensible commission of a crime, or in an intervention of the authorities at the request of affected parties or reports filed by the public. - If between criminal groups, the event is motivated by confrontation due to betrayal, alliances of convenience or reprisal, territorial encroachment. - If within a criminal group, the event is a settling of accounts or ‘disciplinary’. ‘Aggressions’ are attacks against government or government-linked premises, personnel or equipment, intended to harm the targets and cause a great impact among the public. Features considered: - Attacks explicitly target government personnel, premises and goods used by the authorities at all levels, checkpoints, convoys, officials in uniform and vehicles with official markings. - Large-calibre firearms, grenades or explosives are used. - There is no sustained armed response on the part of the authorities. - There are indications that the attackers (one or more) are members of criminal groups, or that the attack is a reprisal for some action taken by the authorities. The navy’s record Dec2006-Dec20101 NUMBER OF OPERATIONS PERSONNEL KILLED2 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010 Quintana Roo 6,666 4,348 6,327 4,564 21,905 Michoacán 568 2,948 5,889 5,560 15,065 - - - 1 Tamaulipas 2,196 4,446 4,285 3,594 14,521 - - - 5 Guerrero 2,905 2,924 9,646 1,830 1,987 1 - - - Veracruz 1,968 2,612 1,649 1,318 7,547 - - - - B. California 1,428 1,145 1,402 2,122 6,097 - - - - Sinaloa 993 1,634 1,312 1,170 5,109 - - - - Campeche 89 680 1,198 1,394 3,361 - - - - B. California S. 101 320 1,057 886 2,364 - - - - Sonora 27 354 533 1,106 1,930 - - - - Oaxaca 208 377 455 629 1,669 - - - - Yucatán 200 339 384 677 1,600 - - - - Nayarit 472 250 376 308 1,406 - - - - Colima 49 41 263 559 912 - - - - Jalisco 23 216 208 434 881 - - - - Tabasco 25 183 215 379 802 - - - - Morelos .. .. .. .. .. - - 1 - Nuevo León .. .. .. .. .. - - - 2 Totals 18,607 23,238 28,578 27,910 97,893 1 0 1 8 1Ranked by data for 2010. 2The navy reported 43 ‘suspected drug traffickers’ killed. Source: Semar disclosure via IFAI to Milenio. Mining the figures The presidential database shows that between 2009 and 2010 deaths caused by ‘clashes’ increased by 198% and those caused by ‘aggressions’ by 158%. The increases since 2007, Calderón’s first year of office, and 2010, are even more impressive: 937% for ‘clashes’, 411% for ‘aggressions’. Even so, the combined total for both categories adds up to only 13% of all deaths attributed to the cartel-related violence in 2010. If it is kept in mind that the category of ‘clashes’ includes confrontations between cartels, not only those in which the government played a role, the only substantial conclusion comes from the figures on ‘aggressions’, that is, events in which the cartels deliberately target the government (as distinct from the ‘clashes’, in which it is not possible to discern clearly either the participants or, at all, the initiators of events). The figures on ‘aggressions’ suggest strongly that the cartels have not made this a central feature of their strategies — though there have been indications that this may be changing. The army has acknowledged reported 1,671 fatalities confrontations with the cartels and 191 deaths in its own ranks between December 2006 and June 2011; the navy, 43 deaths of ‘suspected drug traffickers’ and 10 of its own personnel in operations up to end-2010 — totals which, set against a total drug-war toll of about 40,000 by end-June 2011, add to the impression of a very low level of engagement between the military and the cartels. It must be noted that the police forces have suffered far more fatalities than the military. A report submitted to congress by the SSP in July revealed that since December 2006, 2,886 law-enforcement officers had been killed. Of these, 1,296 belonged to municipal forces, 963 to state forces, 240 to the federal police and 387 to other federal agencies (state intelligence, customs, officers attached to the PGR, military personnel on secondment). At municipal and state level, however, many of the murders of police officers should be considered ‘executions’ that were part of the inter-cartel war. Precisely what has been happening this year is not altogether clear. The newspaper Reforma, which regularly monitors killings related to the inter-cartel war, has reported that in January-June this year, these totalled 6,641, or 31% more than in the same period of 2010. The national public security system (SNSP) reports that in January-May, there were 18,468 homicides across the country, of which 9,396 were intentional — but does not say how many of these fit the presidential database’s criteria for inclusion in any of its three categories of fatalities due to ‘presumed criminal rivalry’. The army has said that clashes in the first six months of this year claimed 585 lives. It acknowledged 56 fatalities in its own ranks. ‘Terrorist tactics’ The 25 August torching of the Casino Royale in Monterrey, which claimed 53 lives, brought again to the fore the argument that the cartels are increasingly resorting to tactics that can be classified as terrorist — indiscriminate attacks in public places likely to claim victims among the public at large. The government reacted to the Casino Royale incident by declaring three days of mourning (the first time ever for an attack attributed to the drug cartels) and deploying 1,500 troops to the area. It also sent a team of tax inspectors to comb through other casinos in the area, confirming the widespread view that illegal casinos have been proliferating there, and that the Casino Royale episode was the latest in a series of extorsive raids by rival cartels that had begun to escalate. Its most immediate precedent was an armed raid on a casino in Saltillo, Coahuila. In late May in Monterrey gunmen raided and robbed four casinos in a coordinated, simultaneous raid. In none of the earlier episodes had there been casualties. In the case of the Casino Royale, there is debate over the warning given by the attackers to vacate the premises, and the allegation that all but one of the establishment’s exits were locked. Nuevo León governor Rodrigo Medina has ordered an investigation into this aspect of the calamity. In August there were two other attacks with explosives in public places in Nuevo León (the bombing of the Allende city hall and a grenade attack on a prison in Apodaca), and four more involving the use of explosives or grenades elsewhere. Altogether, they claimed one life and left 14 people injured. Of all these incidents, two were undoubtedly indiscriminate attacks: the detonation of bombs at an aquarium in Veracruz and a cinema theatre in a shopping mall in Reynosa, Tamaulipas. The other attacks, carried out with manifest disregard for uninvolved victims, targeted government and law-enforcement premises. Indiscriminate attacks on public places August 2011 Date Location Event Casualties 2 Torreón, CU Grenade attack on police premises - 9 Tuxpan, VZ Bomb hurled at city hall 3 injured 11 Allende, NL Bombing of city hall 3 injured 13 Apodaca, NL Grenade attack on prison 4 injured 14 Veracruz, VZ Bomb hurled at aquarium 1 killed, 4 injured 14 Reynosa, TM Bombing of cinema in mall - 15 Saltillo, CU Armed raid on casino - 26 Monterrey, NL Torching of casino 52 killed Source: Media reports. *****************************************************

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