Chance of rain!

Posted by Bret B on January 29, 2012, 6:59 pm
187.146.84.83

The thickening clouds today got Bret the weather guy out of his normal winter-time hibernation to take a peek at the internet resources. Looks like we could get a sprinkle tonight or tomorrow, and maybe more than a sprinkle! I've got my latest donated rain gauge (thanks, Peter) ready just in case. Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=manzanillo%2C+mexico&searchType=WEATHER) gives a 40% chance of rain tomorrow during the day for Manzanillo. The GOES-West infrared satellite loop (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-avn.html) shows plenty of blue and some light yellow streaming over us, and a big area of heavy yellow cloudiness with some small red thunderstorms well to our south. The latest TRMM radar satellite image (http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications_dir/regional_americas.html) confirms some fairly heavy rainfall within the center of the big yellow area. An exerpt from the NHC's East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/) says: "...A LARGE POOL OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE ITCZ N TO 16N BETWEEN 104W AND 116W. (snip) ...RESULTING IN A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 102W AND 108W...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL LIGHTNING NETWORK...AND CLOUD TOPS TO -67 C. (snip) THIS AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY N AND NE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS." If this stuff moves like the NHC says, it would come ashore mostly in Michoacan (south of Manzanillo), but could extend as far as our area. When would it come ashore? I would estimate tomorrow sometime. This time, I agree with the Weather Underground's forecast. And finally, the Mexican gov't weather site (http://smn.cna.gob.mx/boletin/discusion/discusion.html) shows a precip forecast map (almost at the bottom of the page) that shows a few mm of rain near us. This is more green for us on this map than I've seen all winter.

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