on June 18, 2012, 9:10 am, in reply to "Invest 95"187.146.127.129
Re: Invest 95 - worsening forecast for us
Posted by Bret B on June 18, 2012, 9:10 am, in reply to "Invest 95"
187.146.127.129
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Invest 95's chances of development are up to 40%, and the center of this large disorganized low pressure system is about 250 miles WSW of us, slowly moving closer, and growing in size I think. I think some of our recent rains might be related to Invest 95 affecting moisture remnants from Carlotta. The NHC outlook regarding Invest 95(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml) mentions "LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS." We are in SW Mexico. Wunderground's Invest 95 tracking page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep201295_model.html?MR=1) shows that the computer models are still literally "all over the map." This system will be difficult to forecast. We should keep a close eye on it, since it's developing much closer to us than the usual embryonic tropical storm down off the Central American coast. We'll have less warning time if it gets going suddenly. Weather Underground for Manzanillo airport forecasts 100% chance of rain today, 90% tomorrow, 20% Wednesday: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=manzanillo%2C+mexico&searchType=WEATHER. I wouldn't put much faith in anyone's rain forecast beyond a couple days, for this part of the world. |
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