Outlook for next few days

Posted by Bret B on June 21, 2012, 6:34 pm, in reply to "Re: how much rain?"
187.146.127.129

Hi Mark! I can't really do any forecasting to speak of. The daily weather patterns in the tropics are more challenging to predict than those up north. Also there are far fewer reliable weather stations down here. I am taking some online courses in tropical weather forecasting, so someday I might at least be able to explain WHY something happened to us. I don't know if I'll ever be able to PREDICT it though... Hurricanes are about the only things that are somewhat forecastable several days in advance. We have no tropical systems presently being tracked near us. So that means probably no hurricane problems in the next few days. Beyond that, it's all guesswork. The best I can offer is the following exerpt from today's NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/): "GLOBAL FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO (our friend previously called Invest 95) WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND IT WILL WEAKEN STEADILY. MONSOON WINDS FROM THE WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF 120W. THE MONSOON WINDS WILL BECOME WEAKER STEADILY DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS (possibly the cause of our strong gusty breezes lately)... (snip) BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO TROPICAL CYCLONES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP." Come on down!

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