Monday AM weather outlook
Posted by Bret B on August 20, 2012, 9:14 am, in reply to "A rain surprise!"
Today looks pretty unsettled with a good chance of more rain, possibly heavy and loud. The GOES IR loop shows activity all around us: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-avn.html. The GOES Water Vapor loop shows plenty of moisture streaming over us from inland, providing the raw materials to the convection machine (that pesky surface trough and upper level ridge just to our west): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-wv.html |
Not much change in the published info. Good news: the NHC has lowered the chance of "12 8 18" developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm to 0%: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml
The Tropical Weather Discussion (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/) says our surface trough is still there to our west for another day or more, close enough to bother us:
"(snip) DIFFLUENT CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE AXIS ALOFT ARE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN COAST. THE 0424 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS A TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL MEXICO...BUT THE PASS MISSED THE TROUGH AXIS. (snip) THE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ALONG 106W FROM 15N TO 23N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FOUND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 15N TO 20N AND WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 21N AND 23N. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS."
(The "ASCAT pass" refers to a satellite used to measure surface winds. Since it's a low-orbiting one, it only passes over us a couple times per day. It's latest pass wasn't close enough to show the trough axis, so they "analyzed" (techincal guesswork) its location.)
I'll let you know if anything changes....
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