on December 30, 2012, 8:39 pm187.146.106.107
Rain alert!
Posted by Bret B on December 30, 2012, 8:39 pm
187.146.106.107
Sorry for the late warning (the first notable weather event in months, and my TelMex modem breaks down yesterday!  But I'm back online thanks to a modem loan by my generous friend Stan!): Here's the alert: There is a high chance of light-to-moderate rain showers tomorrow/Monday (New Year's Eve), Tuesday (New Year's Day) and Wednesday. Plan your partying accordingly  . Overview: A cold front associated with a strong winter storm is sweeping down through NW Mexico and will pass by just to our north over the next couple days. This will drag plenty of Pacific moisture onshore over us as rainfall, with freezing rain, snow and hail in the higher mountains inland. We'll be quite a bit cooler by Wed even here on the coast (possibly 10 degrees F less than today.) Rain totals could be 2-3" from this system, mostly Monday night and Tuesday. There could also be some strong breezes or moderate winds (50 km/hr, per the SMN site referenced below.) Nerdy details: 1. Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=manzanillo%2C+mexico&searchType=WEATHER&MR=1) says 90%/90%/40% chance of rain for Mon/Tue/Wed. 2. The Mexican SMN weather agency bulletin page (http://smn.cna.gob.mx/boletin/discusion/discusion.html) has a couple of good graphics if you scroll down: one shows the sweeping cold front, rainfall zones, and wind zones. Farther down is a computer model graphic showing the 72-hr accumulated rainfall prediction. 3. The GOES IR satellite loop (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-avn.html) shows the progress of the front sweeping down from the NW thru Baja right now, along with the Pacific cloudiness already encroaching on our coastline. 4. The GFS model from the NWS site (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mike/gfs/crb_p24i_loop_12.html) is fairly reliable, and shows an animated loop of the predicted 24-hr rainfall totals for each 12-hr time slice for the next 7 days. Enjoy the change to our boring beautiful weather, and Happy New Year! |
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