2014 E. Pacific Hurricane Outlook

Posted by Bret B on May 22, 2014, 5:02 pm
201.138.182.147

I guess it's finally time for Bret the part-time weather guy to officially come out of hibernation! Just out today from the US NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center is their hurricane activity outlook for the Eastern Pacific basin for 2014. Looks like an above-normal season is predicted (see links below.) Just keep in mind the prediction area is very large and they don't predict how many storms will actually hit land anywhere, let alone near us. They also admit that their predictions are not extremely reliable this far in advance of the peak part of the season. Note the prediction of a moderate El Nino by later this summer. I think the rising El Nino factors (especially the arrival in April of a "Kelvin wave" of warmer surface waters from the western Pacific) might explain why sea surface temperatures off our coastline are already above normal by several degrees F: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/?index_region=ep (select "Anomaly" to see how far from normal the temps are.) I think our elevated ocean temperatures explain why we're having weather conditions here in La Manz more like June than May. Lately the afternoon highs here in my back yard have been in the low-to-mid 90's F, with uncomfortable humidity.) Link to the hurricane outlook press release: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20140522_hurricaneoutlook_easternpacific.html Link to the original report in all its technical detail: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/Epac_hurricane.html Exerpt from the report: ------------------------------------------- "NOAA’s 2014 eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook indicates a near- or above-normal season is likely, with a 50% chance of an above-normal season, a 40% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of an below normal season. See NOAA definitions of above, near-, and below- normal seasons. The eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the eastern North Pacific Ocean east of 140°W north of the equator. The main climate factor guiding the outlook is the likely development of El Niño during the summer. El Niño decreases the vertical wind shear over the eastern tropical Pacific, favoring more and stronger tropical storms and hurricanes. The eastern Pacific has been in an era of lower hurricane activity since 1995 (Fig. 3), but this pattern will be offset in 2014 by El Niño. Historically, this combination of factors produces a near- or above-normal eastern Pacific hurricane season. We estimate a 70% chance of occurrence for each of the following ranges of activity this season: •14-20 named storms, •6-11 hurricanes, •3-6 major hurricanes, •An ACE range 95%-160% of the median. The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. The predicted ranges are centered near or above the official NHC 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. There will be no further updates to this outlook." --------------------------------------------- There's good news from the Atlantic though: their hurricane outlook (also released just today) predicts lower than normal activity. This is good for us since a few of our storms are born in the Atlantic and come across Mexico into our basin. Atlantic outlook: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml So here we go; hold on to your hats!

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