La Message Board Archives

Re: rain forecast for Sat evening

Posted by Bret B on July 4, 2014, 1:32 pm, in reply to "Re: Boxing Club�s First Event"

By special request by Cruz, here is all I could find to suffice for a rain forecast for tomorrow evening's event:

I would say the chance for rain will be less tomorrow evening than it has been the last few evenings, but certainly not zero. There is no threatening tropical storm action, but there is still plenty of moisture in our area just awaiting a trigger to precipitate out as rain.

For the last few days I have been seeing some thunderstorms forming to our north between PV and Baja. These have been sliding toward us but not quite making it here. That is a different pattern than normal for this time of year. Normally thunderstorms form inland over the mountains and drift westward toward the coast toward us in the late afternoons and evenings. They usually don't quite make it to us (so-called "teaser storms".)

For what it's worth, the Weather Underground forecast for Barra de Navidad (extrapolating from the nearest actual weather station in Manzanillo) predicts the chance of rain tomorrow (Sat.) at 80% during the day, and 60% at night.

But don't panic! They usually predict a higher chance of rain than we actually get here in La Manz. Exactly how much higher? I don't know for sure, but you could cut those two numbers in half and probably not be too far off.

To put it in historical perspective, the average daily rainfall in July for La Manz (from 2004-2013) is 0.23". Of course a lot of this falls in heavy tropical storm events, which we don't have for tomorrow.

The bottom line is that we don't have a lot of hi-resolution accurate forecast resources for this area. You can check that forecast link as the time approaches, and also check the GOES IR satellite loop for a more up-to-the-last-15-minute view of any developing thunderstorms:

Good luck and I hope the event is a success!

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