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TS Odile: big rain threat

Posted by Bret B on September 10, 2014, 12:21 pm, in reply to "Re: Invest 94E: NextWAVEsorm? "

Invest 94E is now Tropical Storm Odile. The predictions show it wandering slowly down south of us for a couple days, then accelerating along the coast just offshore, passing closely by us around Saturday as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane.

But be careful: there is greater than normal uncertainty in these predictions at this point in time. Note the large "error circles" in the tracking map. The center of the storm could end up anywhere in those circles, including inland or out to sea, or right on top of us. It's too early to tell, so take all these forecasts with an appropriately sized grain of salt. There are NO official coastal watches or warnings yet.

Big Rain Threat:

Jeff Masters' blog on the Weather Underground shows a computer model of the predicted rain accumulation for the Mexican coastline from Odile (known as TD 15-E briefly this morning.) It predicts us getting 8-16 inches total from the storm. That could be hazardous considering how wet the ground still is after Norbert. Expect plenty of problems on the highway, and especially in Melaque and Cihuatlan.

Wind Threat:

At this early date, the NHC predicts only about 10% chance of us getting hurricane-force winds here in La Manz:
However, they predict about 50-60% chance of us getting tropical storm force winds (>39 mph):

Surf Threat:

The surf will surely get bigger and more dangerous as Odile passes by. How big? The surf forecast for Boca de Iguanas predicts 7.5-meter (25-foot) waves coming from the SE on Saturday (wow!) La Manz is fairly protected from SE waves, but don't forget about some possible storm surge and high tide levels adding to the wave height. The beach might be dangerous this weekend!
7-day forecast:
Wave height graphic for Saturday:

Don't panic yet, but be prepared. Stay tuned!

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