Re: weak Invest 90E passing by us tonight/tomorrow

Posted by Bret B on October 1, 2014, 12:04 pm, in reply to "Re: Invest 90E: still developing & coming up the coast"
187.148.175.45

Invest 90E is developing very slowly and it's still just a big area of thunderstorms approaching along the coast. It has a 70% chance of becoming some grade of cyclone by Friday AM, and a 90% chance by Monday. The center will be past us by Friday, so I don't think we'll get any wind, and not too much rain. Maybe a couple of inches?? http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/east-pacific/2014/invest-90E?map=model This time of year we need to watch out for the dreaded "right turn" that storms can take in October. You can see that a couple of the computer models for Invest 90E predict a right turn into Baja. They don't need that! Hurricane Jova in October 2011 is a good example: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP102011_Jova.pdf Luckily we had plenty of warning of Jova's right turn due to the modern-day satellite resources and advanced computer models. But back in October 1959 a Category 5 hurricane that the forecasters thought would travel the "usual route" parallel to the coast suddenly took a right turn and slammed into the coast near Manzanillo with winds at least 155 mph, killing 1800 people and devastating much of Colima and Jalisco states. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1959_Mexico_hurricane

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