Invest 92E- possible rains coming?

Posted by Bret B on October 16, 2014, 6:00 pm
187.148.142.164

Just when you thought the tropical storm season might have ended for us: this Invest has been trying to get organized down in the breeding grounds for the last several days. I wouldn't sound the alarm on this except that there are some very intense thunderstorm cells flaring up ahead of the center of the Invest as it slowly heads toward the southern Mexico coast. The big blobs are still barely up to the Michoacán coast, but they have been steadily crawling up the coastline today in our general direction. If blobs like these keep coming like this, we might get some rain in a couple days or so. If your computer can handle Flash animations, the latest GOES-West IR Flash loop shows a couple of big angry blobs coming into view out of the "blacked-out" portion of this satellite's data, on the outskirts of the broad Invest area: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-avn.html If your computer can still handle Java, here is the secret GOES IR Java loop that Daniel discovered showing the merged data from the GOES-West and Goes-East satellites (no annoying blacked-out portion): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-ir4-loop.html The NHC page says Invest 92E has a 50% chance of developing into a cyclone in the next 2 days, and 60% chance in the next 5 days ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5 ): Weather Underground's map of the computer models (remember that these lines are just the storm center's predicted paths. The breadth of the storm isn't shown http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/east-pacific/2014/invest-92E?map=model It's not TOO unusual to have tropical development in October. We're just a few days past Hurricane Jova's anniversary (Oct 11,12 2011.) Since October storms are notoriously erratic, this one bears watching. (Even Hawaii is being threatened by Tropical Storm Ana in a few days. This is the third storm to threaten or hit them this season: very unusual.)

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