on October 17, 2014, 9:06 am, in reply to "Re: Invest 92E- possible rains coming?"187.148.142.164
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No big changes in our forecast this morning. The Invest is still behaving somewhat erratically, and is now predicted to aim mostly at southern Guerrero state (Acapulco region.) But it is still throwing some big blobs in our direction. Those blobs are our main rain threat for now. Our chance of rain today is not high, but definitely higher than it has been the last several days. "Blob loop": http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-avn.html Computer models ( http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2014/Invest-92E?map=model )  Excerpt from NHC Topical Weather Discussion ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/ ): "...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT N TO NW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE (70% next 2 days, 80% next 5 days.) REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE COASTAL STATES OF MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE." |
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