on November 1, 2014, 10:07 am, in reply to "Re: TS Vance formed: rain Mon/Tue?"187.148.142.164
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Vance keeps slowing down and it's latest (as of 9am CST) predicted track keeps edging away from La Manz. It now looks like the closest approach to us will be Tuesday night, almost 300 miles away. Then it makes landfall up around Mazatlan Thursday as a tropical depression. So as long as it doesn't veer suddenly towards us, I wouldn't expect any strong winds, and not much if any rain here in La Manz, maybe 1-2" on Tuesday and Wednesday. Jeff Masters mentions the rain threat in his latest blog ( http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2848 ) "...The 06Z Saturday run of the GFDL model predicted that Vance's moisture would bring a swath of heavy rains of 4 - 8" from just northwest of Puerto Vallarta into Texas, Tuesday night into Wednesday. ..." http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2014/Tropical-Storm-Vance?map=5day  Here is a computer model's rainfall prediction. The top chart shows rainfall accumulation for the next week. La Manz is in the 1-2" range: http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec3.html  I'll be posting one more update tomorrow before I go off-line for a few days. |
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