Possible rain? Posted by deanna on May 6, 2014, 5:47 pm 187.155.121.5 Weather Underground says its too early to post info about possible tropical cyclones, but there's one out in the Pacific already that might bring you some rain. From National Hurricane Center: SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N106.5W TO 08N112W WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR 10.5N109W. AN ASCAT PASS AT 1740 UTC SHOWED THE TROUGH EXTENDING TO 114W. THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A MEAN LOW AND MOVE NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THE DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. Mexican weather site - good graphics: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=79 http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=55&Itemid=58 Are you watching, Brett?? ----------------------------- Re: Possible rain? Posted by helga on May 6, 2014, 10:47 pm, in reply to "Possible rain?" 24.113.48.63 Deanna, our weather woman... I miss you! ----------------------------- Re: Possible rain? Posted by Kimberly O on May 6, 2014, 11:08 pm, in reply to "Re: Possible rain?" 68.14.243.5 We do miss you! Thanks for looking out for us. Hugs to you and Darwin. ----------------------------- Re: Possible rain? Posted by Bret B on May 7, 2014, 12:30 am, in reply to "Re: Possible rain?" 68.0.180.159 Hey Deanna, great job keeping an eye out even in normally-quiet mid May! I'm in the US for a little while longer, busy taking care of things, and I probably would not have caught this. Rains: A quick check of some of my sources and the links from Deanna agrees that there could be some rain coming to La Manz in the next couple days. Maybe as much as 90% chance tomorrow (Wed) and tomorrow night. Anywhere from 1/4" to a couple inches??? The models predict more of the rain to the south (Colima, Michoacan.) Winds: I don't see any predictions of strong winds so far. But it could develop into an actual tropical storm so it bears watching... Sorry I don't have time to post lots of my links and graphics. I'll try to keep an eye on this from up here, and thanks again to Deanna! PS, could someone stick a jar out to catch the rainfall total until I get back with a new rain gauge? ----------------------------- Re: Possible rain? Posted by Alex on May 7, 2014, 8:38 am, in reply to "Re: Possible rain?" 187.146.132.91 Daniel - we missed the first rain guessing contest! I guess it might be too late now? Let's hope so, bring on the rain! ----------------------------- Re: Possible rain? Posted by lisafern on May 7, 2014, 8:44 am, in reply to "Re: Possible rain?" 201.138.183.185 spoken by someone who does not have her roof torn off! ----------------------------- Re: Possible rain? Posted by Judy B on May 7, 2014, 10:05 am, in reply to "Re: Possible rain?" 201.138.178.3 I know u 2 would love to be here for our first rain. Well we would love to have u here. Going to see Bob tomorrow. Big hugs to Tonia and Bob. ----------------------------- Re: Possible rain? Wed update Posted by Bret B on May 7, 2014, 10:33 am, in reply to "Re: Possible rain?" 68.0.180.159 Not much change in the forecast today. Good chance of rain continuing into Thursday, but not too much for La Manz (?) The main threat is still to the south (Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero.) Hope nobody is trying to replace their palapa roof right now! The Mexican weather authority's home page, with daily alerts and forecasts (in Spanish): http://smn.cna.gob.mx/ The good old GOES IR loop shows the near realtime cloud-top temperatures (which usually correspond to thunderstorms and rainfall): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-avn.html Here's a good article on AccuWeather about this system: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/east-pacific-hurricane-season-1/26503210 If that link goes away, try their Hurricane Center Home: http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane Here's the Weather Underground's Manzanillo forecast: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=manzanillo%2C+mexico&searchType=WEATHER&MR=1 The NHC East Pac tropical overview: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml (They had to come out of hibernation befroe their usual May 15 start-up. I'm not the only one!) TRMM radar satellite showing the heavier rains still offshore but steadily approaching (in the last few hours when the latest satellite passes were compiled anyway): http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications_dir/regional_americas.html More later as it develops... ----------------------------- Got umbrellas? Posted by deanna on May 7, 2014, 12:36 pm, in reply to "Re: Possible rain? Wed update" 187.155.121.5 Latest CNA graphic: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/boletin/avisos/tormentas/maptormenta.jpg I do wish we could be there for the first rain of the season. Merida has a surada (south wind) blowing today and it's really hot. ----------------------------- Re: Got umbrellas? Posted by clare on May 7, 2014, 5:23 pm, in reply to "Got umbrellas?" 187.146.128.6 Great map. Miss you all ----------------------------- Re: Possible rain? Thur update Posted by Bret B on May 8, 2014, 9:07 am, in reply to "Possible rain?" 68.0.180.159 Looks like the storm is being stripped apart by upper level winds and they don't expect it to get a name anymore. Most of the rains are well to the south affecting Michoacan and Guerrero. (See the links in my previous post.) Any rainfall reports from La Manz? I'll be out of touch until Sunday. Until then you're in Deanna's strong capable hands again. ----------------------------- Re: Possible rain? Thur update Posted by deanna on May 8, 2014, 9:43 am, in reply to "Re: Possible rain? Thur update" 187.155.121.5 Looks like the rain has mostly come ashore south of L.M. and even Manzanillo. Here's CNA's last report: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/boletin/avisos/pacifico/pacifico.html There'll be updates from NOAA later but I think it's safe to put away the umbrellas. Que lastima! ----------------------------- Re: Possible rain? Thur update Posted by bernie lewis on May 8, 2014, 11:33 am, in reply to "Re: Possible rain? Thur update" Cynthia and I went to Colima yesterday morning and found that a few drops of rain began just outside of Cihuatlan and became a hefty rain-fall almost all the way to Colima ciudad. Conveniently for us,when we were actually in the lower altitude of the city, the rain either had stopped or was very light. Returning home at about 5:00, only intermittent, light rain when it happened at all. -----------------------------      « Back to index 771 Post a Response