La Message Board Archives


Posted by Bret B on May 22, 2014, 5:14 pm

And hot on the heels of the new Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook (see my previous post today,) the season's first tropical depression has just formed. It's well to our south and heading out to sea. If it strengthens some more it will become the first named storm this year (out of the predicted 14-20 named storms.)

Re: TD 1E

Posted by Judy B on May 22, 2014, 8:49 pm, in reply to "TD 1E"

Thank you Bret for all this weather info. We are glued to your reports. Judy and Peter

It's now "Amanda"

Posted by julieandruty on May 24, 2014, 3:05 pm, in reply to "Re: TD 1E"

We had better keep a close watch on this one. She's traveling over very very warm water and hurricanes love that!!! The predictions are all over the place as far as where she might go.

Re: It's now "Amanda"

Posted by Bret B on May 25, 2014, 8:41 pm, in reply to "It's now "Amanda""

Thanks to everyone who kept up with this storm. I've been super busy getting ready to fly north for a family emergency, AND trying to get my roof scraped and re-sealed before the rains come. Don't expect frequent posts from me for the next couple weeks.

Amanda sure did intensify quickly and strongly. Category 4 in May! So we already have one of the 3 to 6 major hurricanes predicted for the whole season. We're lucky that its predicted path is still well away from land, although the path has curved closer to Mexico than a couple days ago:

The storms at the beginning and at the end of the season have a higher inclination to make those dangerous "right-hand turns" that can bring them suddenly into the Mexican coastline. Rusty and/or Julie were right about keeping an eye on this one.

I've got my new rain gauge set up in the back yard, so I can let you know what fell and when, after I get back.


Re: It's now "Amanda"

Posted by Daniel Hallas on May 25, 2014, 10:16 pm, in reply to "Re: It's now "Amanda""

My maid knew the name of this storm on Saturday morning, I on the
other hand knew nothing. I feel so.... out of the loop.

Re: It's now "Amanda"

Posted by julieandruty on May 26, 2014, 8:01 am, in reply to "Re: It's now "Amanda""

First of the rain just started and I actually have a real rain gauge set up.
It will be interesting to see if we get any substantial rain out of Amanda. Sure hope so. This first rain at least settled the dust.

Rain! (you're welcome)

Posted by Bret B on May 26, 2014, 9:24 am, in reply to "Re: It's now "Amanda""

You can probably thank me for the rain today; I was just going up on the roof to lay down the first coat of impermeabilizante over the scraped and wire brushed old paint when it started raining. Really messed up my painting schedule! Nice and cool and breezy though...

My new rain gauge says 0.10" so far.

I think it's tapering off according to the satellite loop.


Posted by julieandruty on May 27, 2014, 7:19 am, in reply to "TD 1E"

She just won't die. There goes my confidence in their predictions!

Re: Amanda

Posted by Bret B on May 27, 2014, 8:01 am, in reply to "Amanda"

That's for sure! Although Hurricane Amanda has weakened some and still is not predicted to make landfall, the weakening is very slow and it's track has kept edging to the right. If it weakens slower than predicted and/or turns farther right and/or speeds up, it COULD get close to the coast in a few days before it peters out and/or turns around back out to sea. I don't think it's very likely that La Manz will feel any direct effects, but I would keep watching just to be prepared.

Latest predicted track for the next 3 days (the 5-day track forecast isn't worth much the way Amanda has been behaving):

Latest computer models showing lots of uncertainty:

Latest technical discussion:

This is my last post for a few days. Good luck!

Re: Amanda

Posted by julieandrusty on May 28, 2014, 7:10 am, in reply to "Re: Amanda"

Woke up this morning to beautiful, slow, gentle rain. Still dark so I have no idea of much much we've gotten so far, but I hope it keeps up.
The weather reports still say Amanda will dissipate before it comes close to us, but this rain is fantastic.
Sorry about those repairing their roofs. This is a little early for rain, but not by much.

Re: Amanda

Posted by cruz on May 28, 2014, 8:31 am, in reply to "Re: Amanda"

Hey, Daniel, does the rain on Monday count as the first rain, not even an inch?

And I lament that we won't be having our first rain date prediction contest this year. We got out-rained. I know, it is not a word or is it?

Anyway, what was the first rain date last year? I missed it by a mile and looked forward toward to winning some tequila this year. For some summer fun, can we try to find a different contest, but what? The next TD or hurricane?

Just the same, thank you Bret and Julie for keeping us informed of what may be the start of an interesting season. And down with the dust. Cruz

Re: Amanda

Posted by julieandrusty on May 29, 2014, 7:50 pm, in reply to "Re: Amanda"

Yes, and down with the dust for sure. My rain gauge shows about 1.2 inches of rain since this all started, cooler temperatures and nice breezes. The weather guys predict another storm to form over the weekend.