La Manzanilla.info Message Board Archives

Invest 99E

Posted by Bret B on August 12, 2014, 11:40 am
187.148.142.74

The hurricane season has been passing us by for several weeks now, with all the action happening well to our southwest and west. Hawaii got 2 of "our" storms, one after the other (Iselle and Julio.) They rarely get hurricanes there.

But this Invest 99E is developing closer to our normal "breeding grounds," so maybe things are starting to return to normal in our region. We might have a small chance of getting some rain from this Imvest, or just from all of the heavy moisture that's been infiltrating our area for the last couple of days.

Excerpt from the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook on Invest 99E ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5 ):
"A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Shower activity has not become any better organized since yesterday, but environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form within the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent."

Weather Underground computer models ( http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/east-pacific/2014/invest-99E?map=model ):

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Re: Invest 99E

Posted by Daniel Hallas on August 12, 2014, 11:56 am, in reply to "Invest 99E"
187.148.141.35

Thanks Bret,

The words tropical depression don't seem to mean the same to me today
as they did yesterday
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TS Karina

Posted by Bret B on August 13, 2014, 3:27 pm, in reply to "Re: Invest 99E"
187.148.142.74

Invest 99E is now Tropical Storm Karina. This one did form closer to the usual breeding grounds to our SE, but is now already past us and heading due west out into the Pacific. Maybe going to Hawaii like the last two???

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2014/Tropical-Storm-Karina



Today we have been almost under one of Karina's far-flung spiral bands, but not quite. We still are much cooler and breezier today than most of the days this summer. There is a lot of moisture and instability around us, so the chance of thunderstorms is higher today.

We certainly don't need the extreme amounts of rain that have flooded Detroit, Baltimore and Long Island: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2759

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