La Manzanilla.info Message Board Archives

Next up: TS Polo

Posted by Bret B on September 16, 2014, 8:49 am
201.138.178.248

Well, that Invest from yesterday already has a name: Tropical Storm Polo. Its still 2-3 days from passing by us as a tropical storm. Probably bringing us some more rain, but maybe less wind and waves than Odile. Today looks fairly dry at least, if you still have laundry to hang...

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/east-pacific/2014/tropical-storm-Polo?map=5day

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Re: Next up: TS Polo

Posted by Lisa Fern on September 16, 2014, 9:10 am, in reply to "Next up: TS Polo"
201.138.182.53

Thanks Bret! Think I'm getting the hang of it.
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TS Polo: TS watch issued

Posted by Bret B on September 16, 2014, 7:19 pm, in reply to "Re: Next up: TS Polo"
201.138.178.248

Nothing much new in the predictions for Polo since this morning, except it is now predicted to reach Cat 1 hurricane status by Thursday morning just before it passes by us offshore a ways.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/east-pacific/2014/tropical-storm-Polo?map=5day


Also new, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Mexican coastline from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes (La Manzanilla is in the northern portion of the watch area.) The NHC says we have about 40% chance of getting tropical storm force winds (>39mph) at some point. These are similar numbers as those predicted for Odile.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/233438.shtml?tswind120?large#contents


The time of closest approach looks like Thursday morning. Rains and winds could begin Wednesday evening.

Jeff Masters' Weather Underground blog post for today mentions the coast near Manzanillo possibly getting 4-8 inches of rain from Polo. That would also be similar to Odile:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2800
"...Polo is expected to head northwest towards the Pacific coast of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday, and will be capable of bringing heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches of rain to the coast of Southwest Mexico near Manzanillo Wednesday through Friday...."
(Note: ignore his other comments about the individual computer models. They have already changed since he made this post.)

So I would prepare for another soaking rain and some more gusty breezes. Probably lower waves this time since it's not a Cat 3 hurricane.

Stay tuned!
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Re: TS Polo: TS watch issued

Posted by Leo on September 16, 2014, 9:28 pm, in reply to "TS Polo: TS watch issued"

Hello,
My wife and daughter are down by Manzanillo.
They have seen the news reports of what happened in Cabo San Lucas and are concerned about Polo. Should I tell them to hold tight for a few days till it passes and they should be able to enjoy their vacation at the beach?

Thank you in advance.

Leo
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Re: Manzanillo outlook

Posted by Bret B on September 17, 2014, 9:06 am, in reply to "Re: TS Polo: TS watch issued"
201.138.178.248

Sorry I didn't check the message board last night, Leo. Here are some comments regarding the outlook for the Manzanillo area.

They are not that many miles south of us (30-40 miles), so many of the predictions for the La Manzanilla area would hold.

Main NHC page for Polo:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

Winds:

The expected winds will be MUCH less than what hit Los Cabos in Baja. There is currently about a 50% chance of Manzanillo (and us) getting tropical storm-force winds at some point (>39mph.)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/113445.shtml?tswind120#contents

There is less than 5% chance of getting hurricane force winds (>74mph.) I believe Los Cabos got 125mph winds since Odile was Category 3 when it landed right on top of them. Polo is predicted to stay well offshore of us.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/113445.shtml?hwind120#contents

Tropical storm force winds would maybe last less than one day, and cause little or no structural damage to any decent hotel-type building. Possibly some broken windows and downed trees. Maybe a few blown-off roof tiles. There's always the chance of a power outage also, possibly lasting several hours or even a day or two.

The airport would probably close during winds greater than 20-30mph.

Rains:

Rains are harder to predict. Maybe 4-8" total from the storm? Small deviations in the track of the center of the storm can cause large changes in the rainfall amounts. If Manzanillo gets a lot of rain, there will be some temporary street flooding and closures. Also, the airport access road can get cut when the Marabasco River (next to Cihuatlan) floods, sometimes closing the airport for a few days.

Surf:

Some of the Manzanillo beaches are notorious for having dangerous surf and rip conditions during tropical storms. Definitely stay out of the water if the red flags are flying! The surf should be quite a bit lower than when Odile was passing by our coast, since Polo will only be a high tropical storm or low Cat 1.

In summary, Polo will be quite survivable, but probably will interrupt the enjoyment of their vacation for a while. The effects such as street flooding, power outages, high surf, etc. might last less than one day, up to a few days.

Good luck! Be prepared, but don't worry TOO much!
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Re: Manzanillo outlook

Posted by Leo Miller on September 17, 2014, 9:40 am, in reply to "Re: Manzanillo outlook"

Thank you for the info Bret.

Leo
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TS Polo: TS Warning issued

Posted by Bret B on September 17, 2014, 12:29 pm, in reply to "Re: Manzanillo outlook"
201.138.178.248

The latest update from the NHC shows Polo's predicted track staying offshore, but it'll be close enough to reach out and give us some winds and rains. So the Mexican government has raised our alert status from Tropical Storm Watch to Tropical Storm Warning. The warning area extends from Michoacán well to our south to Playa Perula a little to our north.

NHC Public Advisory: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/171454.shtml?
Excerpt: "A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS."

They also give an estimated rainfall prediction, a little higher than my educated guess earlier this morning: "RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES."

Latest tracking map showing that the center staying offshore about 100-120 miles from La Manz as it passes by as a Cat 1 hurricane tomorrow (Thursday): http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/east-pacific/2014/tropical-storm-Polo?map=5day


Our chance of getting tropical storm force winds is a little higher now: 50-60%.
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Re: TS Polo: TS Warning issued

Posted by Leo Miller on September 17, 2014, 12:38 pm, in reply to "TS Polo: TS Warning issued"

Thanks again Bret

It looks like they are going to stick it out and hope for some better weather in a few days.

Leo
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Re: TS Polo: TS Warning issued

Posted by cruz on September 17, 2014, 3:05 pm, in reply to "Re: TS Polo: TS Warning issued"
187.146.140.128

Bret, tu eres super. Thanx for keeping us and wee me so well informed. Duermo mejor, believe me, Cruz
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Hurricane Polo: passing us today

Posted by Bret B on September 18, 2014, 9:00 am, in reply to "Re: TS Polo: TS Warning issued"
187.148.41.119

Polo is barely up to Cat 1 hurricane strength today: 75mph winds. Nothing much different than yesterday except they have it positioned a little farther offshore today, so our chance of getting 39+mph winds is down to 20%. I estimate its closest approach to us later today will be about 150 miles offshore.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/east-pacific/2014/hurricane-Polo?map=5day


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/113226.shtml?tswind120?large#contents


The rain forecast hasn't changed: 5-10 inches. We have received almost 0.5" so far since last night. Our ground is still quite saturated, so any new rain will run off quickly. Watch out if you live near any streets that turn into washes.
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Re: Hurricane Polo: passing us today

Posted by Red on September 18, 2014, 11:25 am, in reply to "Hurricane Polo: passing us today"
67.142.166.27

Thanks for the update Bret. Looks like we will be OK, but Cabo better be prepared to bend over again.
Rojo
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Re: TS Polo: passing us today

Posted by Justin R. Sol on September 18, 2014, 3:54 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Polo: passing us today"
189.164.122.52

Back to TS now.
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Re: TS Polo: passing us today

Posted by Daniel H on September 18, 2014, 7:02 pm, in reply to "Re: TS Polo: passing us today"
201.138.176.51

Uaing Google Earth with temporary places enabled and tools / ruler, it says
the storm will be 120 miles off shore when it is infront of the Bay of Tenacatita
later this evening (if the forecast track holds)



Lucky for us there is a nice low tide at 3 am, keeping hopes up!



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Re: TS Polo: passing us today

Posted by Mark S. on September 19, 2014, 5:01 am, in reply to "Re: TS Polo: passing us today"
187.146.131.182

Very interesting pic and diagram, Daniel!

It did get a little blustery yesterday afternoon, and we are still getting rain. The surf was relatively mild yesterday in the afternoon, but I'm sure it picked up when the winds did.

You've lived here a long time, maybe you or Bret B. could confirm that this has been a relatively cool summer.
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Re: TS Polo: rain report & heat question

Posted by Bret B on September 19, 2014, 10:10 am, in reply to "Re: TS Polo: passing us today"
187.148.41.119

Polo is past us and slowly heading northwest out to sea. We are probably done with most of the wind and rain by now. Hopefully Baja won't get much from Polo. They've had too much already!

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2014/Tropical-Storm-Polo?map=5day


Wednesday we got 0.08"/2mm, yesterday we got 1.08"/27mm, and today so far we got 0.52"/13mm. Storm total so far: only 1.68"/43mm.

That's quite a bit less rain than expected. One reason might be that the storm was getting most of its northern quadrant pushed away from us by some upper-level wind shear yesterday and today. In this interactive map from the NHC, you can see that most of Polo's upper-level clouds have been pushed to the south of the low-level center of circulation. Yesterday it was the northeast quadrant (closest to us) that was somewhat missing.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/114441.shtml?gm_track#contents


To answer Mark's question about this summer's temperatures: this summer (June thru August) has been hotter than the average, according to the numbers. Our afternoon high temperatures this summer have been several degrees higher than the historical average (dataset: 2004-2013.) Not all of this delta can be blamed on the data shift that happened when I took over the data collection from Deanna in September 2011 (my location down in the flats is warmer than Deanna's up above the church, but only a couple or 3 degrees(??)) Here are the numbers (in °F only for less data clutter):

Jun Tmax: historical avg = 87.5, Jun 2014 = 92.2, Delta = +4.7
Jul Tmax: historical avg = 88.0, Jul 2014 = 93.1, delta = +5.1
Aug Tmax: historical avg = 89.0, Aug 2014 = 92.7, delta = +3.7

Definitely the last few weeks have been cooler because of all the storms, but before that it was a pretty hot summer. Soon I'll post a more comprehensive historical temperature analysis (with spinning 3-D charts and flaming graphics and everything!)

And we are not alone: "Earth Has its Warmest Summer and August on Record"
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2803#commenttop
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Re: TS Polo: rain report & heat question

Posted by Daniel H on September 19, 2014, 11:54 am, in reply to "Re: TS Polo: rain report & heat question"
201.138.176.51

Some of the waves coming in now are as big as the biggest of Norbert or Odile, amazing
considering Polo is a Tropical Storm and not a hurricane.
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Re: TS Polo: rain report & heat question

Posted by dobie on September 19, 2014, 1:19 pm, in reply to "Re: TS Polo: rain report & heat question"
201.138.178.94

We got 4" for the storm total here in El Rebalsito. Still windy.
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