La Manzanilla.info Message Board Archives

Slight chance of rain in next 10 days?

Posted by Bret B on March 8, 2015, 12:47 pm
187.148.141.155

Just in case anyone is planning roof work soon, I wanted to give a "heads-up". Normally March and April are rain-free for La Manzanilla. Actually the 10-years of data show no measurable rain for the 3-month span from mid-February to mid-May. But we've been having unusual weather patterns this year so far, as that rainy spell in February showed.

The Weather Underground forecast predicts significant rainfall next weekend (for Barra anyway): a little bit on Friday the 13th, then upwards of an inch over Sunday, Monday, Tuesday. They also show a slight chance tomorrow (Monday) night. As always, take a BIG grain of salt with any forecasts this far in advance: http://www.wunderground.com/q/locid:MXJO0760?

The Mexican ConAgua forecast predicts a chance of rain on Tuesday, but doesn't go out to next weekend yet: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/boletin/discusion/discusion.html

The normally-reliable GFS computer model predicts some significant accumulations (maybe 1 inch?) not too far from us in the inland mountains on Wednesday and Thursday, but not much during next weekend: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mike/gfs/crb_p24i_loop_12.html

I can't add much local guidance to these predictions yet. It's too early to be very sure, but I think it's worth crying wolf rather than getting a rude surprise while your palapa is torn down or whatever...

I'll keep you posted.
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Re: Slight chance of rain in next 10 days?

Posted by Neal on March 8, 2015, 5:21 pm, in reply to "Slight chance of rain in next 10 days?"
201.133.154.39

Thanks for the heads up.
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Good Visual Link Bret!

Posted by daniel c on March 8, 2015, 8:38 pm, in reply to "Slight chance of rain in next 10 days?"
98.232.59.204

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_hem_loop-12.gif


Wet for sure!
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Rain forecast: Monday update

Posted by Bret B on March 9, 2015, 9:28 am, in reply to "Slight chance of rain in next 10 days?"
187.148.141.155

Not much change in the forecast for next weekend (see 1st post.) Today however, the Weather Underground says we have a 50% chance of rain and even thunderstorms in the afternoon, with less than a tenth of an inch accumulation. I personally would cut that down to maybe 20%, based on my experience with their forecasts, and my other (meager) forecast resources. And I doubt there would be thunderstorms.

The GOES-West IR satellite loop does show a thick plume of high-level cloudiness currently streaming onshore to our north, and slowly edging southward toward us: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-avn.html

But high-level clouds don't always equal rain. The TRMM satellite shows actual precipitation as of a few hours ago. You can see there was very little rain coming out of the heavy yellow clouds shown in the IR loop: http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/americas/americas_3hrly_zoom.gif

0900Z TRMM data:


Until tomorrow...
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Re: Chance of rain increasing for weekend

Posted by Bret B on March 10, 2015, 5:01 pm, in reply to "Slight chance of rain in next 10 days?"
187.148.141.155

Summary:

My forecast resources are converging more and more on the consensus that we will have a good chance of significant rains this weekend. This is most bizarre!

And not just computer models are getting crazy: on my drive up to Perula and back this morning, there were a few sprinkles. Then when I got home I saw this over the mountains not far to our east:



Thunderstorms in March? This is exactly what we see in June! (After a while these storms got sheared off and pushed inland. No rain for us, ALSO just like June.)

Details:

W.U. now says 50%-75% chance of rain Saturday, Sunday and Monday, with total 3-day accumulation of over 2" (!) http://www.wunderground.com/q/locid:MXJO0760?

CONAGUA says ( http://smn.cna.gob.mx/boletin/discusion/discusion.html ):
> Today (Tuesday): Parts of Jalisco get 1-2".
> Tomorrow (Wed): Parts of Jalisco have 60% chance of 0-1".
> Thur: nothing.
> Fri: 0-1" for somewhere in Jalisco.
> Sat: 1-3" for somewhere in Jalisco.

GFS computer model ( http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mike/gfs/crb_p24i_loop_12.html ) shows a very heavy band of rains soaking the coast in Michoacán and Colima Sat, Sun, Mon, with total 3-day accumulations above 4" in this band. We are close to the edge of the band, so if anything shifts it north very much we could get a few inches:


Here's another site to make you start building an ark. I check it frequently, but I don't know how accurate it is. We'll see: http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec3.html They predict a total accumulation over the next 7 days of about 4" for us, with peaks of 10" within a couple hundred miles of us (!!)


Possible causes:

The only mention I've found is in today's Tropical Weather Discussion for the East Pacific ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/ ): "MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OF THE U.S...THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG
105W AND OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST. AN AREA OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ACTIVE ONSHORE OVER JALISCO STATE IN MEXICO NEAR THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER NOTED OFFSHORE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI AND SAT. ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR MANZANILLO LATE IN THE WEEK."

I'll try to keep you posted...
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Re: Chance of rain increasing for weekend

Posted by David Dagoli on March 10, 2015, 5:22 pm, in reply to "Re: Chance of rain increasing for weekend"
187.148.40.85

Weather Channel:


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Re: Chance of rain increasing for weekend

Posted by Daniel H on March 10, 2015, 8:21 pm, in reply to "Re: Chance of rain increasing for weekend"
201.133.153.237

Right or wrong Bret, your the go to meteorologist in my opinion,
I trust you more than my cat! .... I mean your more consitient
than Tequila I mean...oh hell, you know what I mean.
Thank you.
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Re: Chance of rain increasing for weekend

Posted by Jane G on March 10, 2015, 8:30 pm, in reply to "Re: Chance of rain increasing for weekend"
189.164.205.209

SIGH! You're (You are)
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Re: Chance of rain increasing for weekend - hailstorms inland yesterday!

Posted by Bret B on March 11, 2015, 8:51 am, in reply to "Re: Chance of rain increasing for weekend"
187.148.141.155

Some of those thunderstorms we saw to our east yesterday afternoon (among others farther inland according to the IR loop yesterday) dropped a lot of hail in the higher locations. Here is a screen grab from http://canal235.com/ showing 2-3" of hail on the highway near Tapalpa (a pretty little town in the mountains southwest of Guadalajara):


Its getting more and more like June (except the temperature...)
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Re: Chance of rain increasing for weekend - hailstorms inland yesterday!

Posted by DanH on March 11, 2015, 11:18 am, in reply to "Re: Chance of rain increasing for weekend - hailstorms inland yesterday!"
173.255.183.16

We got 0.8 inches of rain in Ajijic yesterday afternoon and evening. Everyone is shaking their heads, no one can remember March rain here.

Since we're headed to La Manz on Sunday for a week be advised that no rain will be permitted from Sunday to Sunday there. :>)

Thank you for you cooperation!
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Re: Chance of rain increasing for weekend - hailstorms inland yesterday!

Posted by Tim Edwards on March 11, 2015, 2:35 pm, in reply to "Re: Chance of rain increasing for weekend - hailstorms inland yesterday!"
198.0.232.53

ditto......
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Re: Rainy weekend - Thursday update

Posted by Bret B on March 12, 2015, 8:04 am, in reply to "Re: Chance of rain increasing for weekend"
187.148.141.155

It's amazing how little all the predictions have changed in the last few days. We are still going to get at least a little wet, and maybe an inch or two.

The changes since my last update ( http://members5.boardhost.com/lamanzanilla/msg/1426028513.html ) are:

> W.U. now shows the rain stretching into Tuesday and maybe even Wednesday, and a little less total accumulation:
http://www.wunderground.com/q/locid:MXJO0760?MR=1


> CONAGUA agrees mostly.

> GFS model is about the same.

> Wxmaps.org is about the same.

> NHC Trop Wx Discussion is about the same: "THE MODELS THEN DEPICT A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CUT-OFFS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SAT...AND MEANDERS IN THAT AREA THROUGH SUN. ITS POSSIBLE THAT DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR MORE COULD SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PUERTO ANGEL."

Welcome to weird weather! At this rate, the jungle might not ever drop its leaves and turn brown this "dry season". If March is looking like June (except for the heat,) what will June look like??
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June Will Be Wonderful

Posted by Mark S. on March 12, 2015, 8:47 am, in reply to "Re: Rainy weekend - Thursday update"
189.164.205.104

We'll have temp. and humidity in the 90s, the ocean will warm, the streets will be vacant and the house fans will be humming.

My only concern is Hwy. 200: if it's this bad now, I dread how much more it will deteriorate.
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Re: Slight chance of rain in next 10 days?

Posted by Vicki and Robin on March 12, 2015, 9:28 am, in reply to "Slight chance of rain in next 10 days?"
187.148.186.195

Whether it's cold
Or whether it's hot,
We will have weather,
Whether or not.
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Re: Slight chance of rain in next 10 days?

Posted by Rhema on March 12, 2015, 12:24 pm, in reply to "Re: Slight chance of rain in next 10 days?"
189.164.205.119

Or as my Dad used to say, "Everyone always talks about the weather but no one ever does anything about it".
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Friday update: even heavier rain forecsat?

Posted by Bret B on March 13, 2015, 8:50 am, in reply to "Slight chance of rain in next 10 days?"
187.148.141.155

Summary:

Not much change in likelihood and timing of the online rain forecasts for this weekend (25-50% chance on Sat, then near-100% chance on Sun, Mon, Tue.) But it looks like the total accumulations are predicted to be heavier than yesterday's forecasts, and sliding more into Tuesday.

Details:

> W.U. now forecasts OVER 5 INCHES total accumulation for the whole 4-day period:
http://www.wunderground.com/q/locid:MXJO0760?MR=1


> CONAGUA predicts even more: SOMEWHERE in Jalisco gets 0-1" today, 3-6" Sat, 3-6" Sun, 2-3" Mon:
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/boletin/discusion/discusion.html
Here's their 4-day graphical forecast (yes, it's this tiny on their site also!) I circled our vicinity in red on the 1st map. You can see the "cut-off mid- and upper-level low pressure feature ("eighth winter storm") settling in to our northwest that is to blame for sweeping that thick band of moisture from the Pacific (blue arrows) over the western Mexico coastline:


But the computer models shown on the CONAGUA site don't really support this much rain in Jalisco. The WRF-SNM and GFS both show most of the rain staying to our south: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=16&Itemid=87

>The 7-day GFS model ( http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mike/gfs/crb_p24i_loop_12.html ) also shows the heavier rains staying just to our south in Colima and Michoacán. Then on Tuesday it shows us getting a couple or three inches.

My opinion:

I think the various models don't support multi-inch rainfall for La Manzanilla, especially when we have seen in the past how these heavy Pacific moisture plumes tend to drop most of their rain just before crossing the coast, and then they resume heavy rains inland over the higher terrain. We seem to have a localized "coastal effect" that the models don't include very well.

So my forecast: high chance of rain later this weekend, but more like 1-2" total. But keep in mind it would only take a 50-100 mile shift northwards of the heavy rain band to greatly increase our accumulation (6-8-10 inches worst-case.)

Get your laundry hung and your roofs finished today to be safe!

Until tomorrow...
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Re: Friday update: even heavier rain forecsat?

Posted by Julie and Rusty on March 13, 2015, 9:56 am, in reply to "Friday update: even heavier rain forecsat?"
201.138.176.22

Every time I look at the forecast they increase the amount of expected rain!!!
There goes our road again!!!
CRAZY!
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Re: Friday update: even heavier rain forecsat?

Posted by Larry F on March 13, 2015, 11:02 am, in reply to "Re: Friday update: even heavier rain forecsat?"
189.164.250.10

Ah, but Julie, it will be snowing on the east coast on Sunday. Not that that eases the pain of watching your road flow down the hill once again.
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Re: Friday update: even heavier rain forecsat?

Posted by David Dagoli on March 13, 2015, 11:20 am, in reply to "Re: Friday update: even heavier rain forecsat?"
187.148.40.85

http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2015/03/11/heavy-rain-in-mexico-this-weekend-raises-flooding-concerns/
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Re: Friday update: even heavier rain forecsat?

Posted by Daniel H on March 13, 2015, 11:33 am, in reply to "Re: Friday update: even heavier rain forecsat?"
Edited by board administrator March 13, 2015, 11:39 am

Usually when a rain prediction happens one can look at a weather loop and see
the rain coming. When I do that now I see nothing coming at all.
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Sat update: no big change

Posted by Bret B on March 14, 2015, 8:41 am, in reply to "Slight chance of rain in next 10 days?"
187.148.141.155

Today's chance of rain went down some (I predict maybe 20% chance of measurable rain by tonight.) Plenty of cloudiness today though. Tomorrow (Sun) and Mon are well over 50% in my opinion, but I still think the W.U. and CONAGUA storm totals are too high for La Manz. I'd say more like 1-2" through Monday night. Tuesday might be pretty rainy also, but that's a little too far for my crystal ball to reach yet.



I still have to caution that we will be right on the edge of a zone of some very high rainfall amounts, so there is a slight chance our 1-2" could go as high as 6-10".

The people to our south (Melaque, Barra, Cihuatlan, Manzanillo) will have more and more rain than us, so heads-up if you are travelling that way tomorrow or Monday (including airport departures.) And the "pothole forecast" for our local stretch of Highway 200 is for many severe holes hiding under the rainy road surface, and multiplying terribly because of the rain. I'm not kidding: in the rain, that drive will be hazardous to your vehicle and your safety; go slow and be careful!

Sorry, no more spiffy screen grabs and links today. Not much different from yesterday's...
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Sun update: "firehose" turning our way later today?

Posted by Bret B on March 15, 2015, 9:58 am, in reply to "Slight chance of rain in next 10 days?"
187.148.141.155

We just got our first sprinkle of the weekend, but there's quite a bit more coming according to the forecast sites and computer models. The raw computer models are gradually agreeing with the Weather Underground forecast, so I have to agree that we should expect around 4" total through Tuesday.

Just keep in mind that there is a large uncertainty caused by being so close to the sharply defined edge of the "firehose" that is currently soaking Michoacán and Colima. Our actuals could be a little as 1" or as much as 10" (those extreme totals are showing in all the models, within 100 miles of La Manz.)

W.U. forecast: ( http://www.wunderground.com/q/locid:MXJO0760? )


The IR loop shows the "firehose" quite well:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-avn.html

And here is the more zoomed-in view from CONAGUA (don't forget to refresh this animated GIF every time you look at it):
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/satelite/goesE/co/loop.gif

The IR loops show the center of the firehose well south in Michoacán, but the TRMM satellite data shows that the actual falling rain is mostly in the northern side of the firehose, so "loops can be deceiving..."

TRMM near-realtime rainfall from a few hours ago shows some of the heaviest and widest rainfall rates hitting the coast that I have ever seen, including the last few years of hurricanes. Up to 0.5"/hr sustained rate, which is very heavy by TRMM standards, was centered on northern Michoacán, as far as I can tell: http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/americas/americas_3hrly_zoom.gif


The TRMM 7-day accumulation ( http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/americas/americas_accumulation_zoom.gif ) shows 6-8" has ALREADY fallen onshore near the Colima/Michoacán border:


I wouldn't be surprised to hear reports of flash flooding and mudslides in the hardest-hosed areas. Forget June; welcome to September weather (minus the heat!)

Stay tuned for more updates if anything changes...
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Mon.rain totals.

Posted by Bret B on March 16, 2015, 8:32 am, in reply to "Slight chance of rain in next 10 days?"
187.148.43.133

Well. it's time to throw out the micro-detailed analyses and board your arks. You DID make your arks didn't you?

Yesterday we got 3.0" / 76mm by bedtime.
Since then we got 4.0" / 102mm until 7:30 am today.
Storm total 7.0" / 178mm (and counting.)

I already had to put out a deeper rain gauge / bucket!

This would be pretty heavy weather even in the rainy season. For March, it's CRAZY.

I hope everyone is staying safe.

The W.U. forecast for today shows 3", but we ALREADY got more than that!
http://www.wunderground.com/q/locid:MXJO0760


I think we have a good chance of hitting my "worst-case" number of 10" for the total storm accumulation.

Here's a good story about our "March firehose" storm from Accuweather: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/mexico-flooding-weekend-mudsli/43721977

I don't have any rain reports from other nearby stations. Melaque/Barra not yet, Manzanillo airport has no functional rain gauge, The only Personal Weather Station remaining in Manzanillo also has no rain gauge, and of course there is no weather radar in this part of Mexico.

Later...





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Re: Mon.rain totals.

Posted by Ron Smith on March 16, 2015, 9:00 am, in reply to "Mon.rain totals."
187.148.142.193

At about 6:30a while I was still pretending to sleep I counted lightning flashes over a 5 minute time period. They were from 9 to 14 seconds apart, with 11 seconds being the most frequent interval. Amazing.
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Re: Mon.rain totals.

Posted by lisa Fern on March 16, 2015, 9:20 am, in reply to "Mon.rain totals."
187.148.42.197

Oh Bret, the weather wizard,

Why is it so cold?
When is it going to stop raining?
(I only have 1 dry towel left)

Amazingly, haven't lost power for any length of time, although maybe I should keep quiet about that!

Thanks!
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Re: Mon.rain totals.

Posted by Larry F on March 16, 2015, 9:28 am, in reply to "Re: Mon.rain totals."
189.164.203.235

Hey, Bret, I didn't build an ark but I did move my old ark, the car, down the road to drier ground. This morning the cars who didn't move are up to their floor boards in mud. I'll later to see what animals moved into it.

Calle Concha Molida is washed out, barely walkable in places.

Question of the week - Which local businessman will be the busiest over the next week?
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Re: Mon.rain totals.

Posted by Daniel H on March 16, 2015, 9:34 am, in reply to "Re: Mon.rain totals."
189.164.217.49

Answer to question of the week - Real Estate offices. Everyone will be
buying back downhill what used to be theirs uphill, mainly roads and driveways.
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Re: Mon.rain totals.

Posted by Bret B on March 16, 2015, 10:45 am, in reply to "Re: Mon.rain totals."
187.148.43.133

OOO, OOO, pick me! Pick me! Would this mystery businessman drive a big yellow maquina?

What do I win? A complimentary Right Now Weather ™ report from Mark?
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Re: Mon.rain totals.

Posted by Bret B on March 16, 2015, 10:39 am, in reply to "Re: Mon.rain totals."
187.148.43.133

Hi Lisa, the cold is normal when it rains for a long time (lots of rain cooling the air plus no sun to warm it up.) Even in the summer it can get pretty cool in our drafty house by day 2 or 3 of a slow pass-by of a hurricane. Right now it's 69.7°F at my back yard. During hurricane pass-bys I haven't seen less than 70°F.

Of course if the wind comes up then you have some wind chill to deal with...

Sometime today the rain should start tapering off and be done by late tomorrow. It's taking a break right now, but I'm pretty sure we are not done with rain today yet.

Those frequent power outages like last last night happen often in the summer also. A small battery back-up (UPS) for my computer is really handy then to have time to check the weather and stay in touch via the message board. You need to plug your Telmex modem into the UPS also. Luckily the local Telmex building here in La Manz that splits out all of our DSL lines has a good battery bank and/or generator. Even during Hurricane Jova in 2011, the Telmex DSL service stayed up for over 24 hrs of our 33-hr power outage.
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Re: Mon.rain totals.

Posted by Larry F on March 16, 2015, 12:02 pm, in reply to "Re: Mon.rain totals."
189.164.203.235

Bret wins the prize ..... yes, big, yellow, noisy. It moves the real estate from down the hill back up the hill to the original owners. Sorry, Daniel.

The prize is a pass for white water rafting through the lagoon overflow. It is the world's only white water river rafting with a crocodile feature. Way cool!
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Re: Mon.rain totals.

Posted by DanH on March 16, 2015, 1:13 pm, in reply to "Re: Mon.rain totals."
187.148.142.124

I should have taken you seriously when you said to print the picture of the sun and paste it to the top of my umbrella.

Unfortunately, we weren't even smart enough to bring the umbrella.

Drat!
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