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Re: Hurricane Jova

Posted by Bret B on October 9, 2011, 5:57 pm, in reply to "Hurricane Jova"
187.146.84.254

It's still heading generally our way!

ALERTS:
1. The Jalisco Civil Protection alarm system in the Jardin (big orange tower) announced a "green" alert today around 1:30PM.
2. The Mexican gov't has issued a Hurricane Watch for our coast (from down in Michoacan up to Cabo Corrientes between here and P.V.) That means that tropical storm conditions are POSSIBLE in the watch area (making outside preparations difficult) within the next 48 hrs.

WHERE: The latest track centerline shows landfall between Barra de Navidad and La Manzanilla, and the track error radius is shrinking but still is plus or minus 100-120 miles (160-193 km.) That means it COULD land anywhere from mid-Michoacan up to way offshore between Nayarit and Baja.

WHEN: Landfall time is predicted to be around Tusday evening, but even that still has a several hour error window.

STRENGTH: It's a Cat 1 storm right now with 90mph/145kph winds in the eye wall, and is projected to grow to Cat 3 with 120mph/193kph winds by Tuesday afternoon. Winds at landfall could be as high as that, but probably a little lower.

SIZE: Tropical storm force winds (greater than 39mph/63kph) are predicted to extend out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center at landfall. Rains even farther out. Tuesday morning the first breezes could begin to arrive. Rains probably earlier than that.

Plan accordingly, and hope it doesn't land here!

LINKS:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep201110_5day.html?MR=1
http://www.stormpulse.com/pacific/tropical-storm-jova-2011
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=60:aviso-del-pacifico&catid=4&Itemid=63

More in the morning after the 10AM updates.
469


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