on May 24, 2012, 5:16 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Bud: now stronger"187.146.79.169
Re: Hurricane Bud: 5PM EDT Update
Posted by Bret B on May 24, 2012, 5:16 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Bud: now stronger"
187.146.79.169
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The forecast is worsening: Bud is now predicted to peak at Cat 3 before beginning to weaken, and is now predicted to actually make landfall a little north of us as a Cat 1 hurricane, around 2AM Saturday (Friday overnight). Then they show it travelling up the coast over Puerto Vallarta as it continues to weaken to a tropical storm. Then it may actually turn around and come back south a little, but that's pretty far out in the future to bank on. Changes in the Public Advisory ( http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ep201202.public.html?MR=1 ): Hurricane Warning is now issued from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes (south of PV). >74 MPH winds are expected somewhere in the warning area. Excerpt on the wind hazard: "...hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area by Friday afternoon. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength in the hurricane and Tropical Storm Warning areas tonight...making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion." The Hurricane Hunter aircraft mostly just confirmed the satellite data. The expected rainfall totals are still 4-6", so maybe not a Jova-like flooding storm. My attempt at interpreting the confusing wind probablities table ( http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ep201202.windprob.html ): Barra has a 95% chance of getting 39 mph sustained winds sometime during the storm, mostly between midnight tonight and noon tomorrow. Barra has a 59% chance of getting 58 mph winds (tropical storm force), mostly from noon Friday to midnight Friday. Barra has a 26% chance of getting 74 mph sinds (hurricane force), mostly from noon Friday to midnight Friday. For locations up on a hilltop around La Manz, you would expect a little higher winds than at Barra, since we'll be 10 miles closer to the center. But our terrain around here helps to slow down the winds quite a bit. Nevertheless, you should make your usual pre-hurricane preparations today, since the weather might get too rowdy tomorrow to be up on roofs, etc. More later... |
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