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Re: Hurricane update: 2PM PDT

Posted by Bret B on May 25, 2012, 4:45 pm, in reply to "Hurricane update"
187.146.112.27

Well, the forecast track and strength hasn't changed much since the last update, maybe a little weaker and curving off the coast instead of "bouncing":
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep201202.html?MR=1
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/000024.shtml?gm_track#contents

But where's the rain and wind you ask? I haven't had more than 0.1" here since noon, and just occasional windy gusts. The GOES IR loop shows NO SIGN OF A ROTATING HURRICANE that I can see, for the last few hours: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-avn.html
In technical terms, it looks like the stuffing just completely fell out of it.

In the latest Technical Discussion ( http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ep201202.disc.html ) they do mention "drier air intruding into the center" and "moderate wind shear" (enough of which can tear a storm apart.) Maybe this happened a lot faster than they thought??

I would still be ready for winds and rains (possibly prolonged thru the weekend,) but maybe this one is dwindling...
325


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