A rain surprise!

Posted by Bret B on August 19, 2012, 9:59 am
187.146.113.21

Wow, I sure didn't see THAT much rain coming! My rain gauge says 8.5" fell since yesterday evening, and it's probably not done yet! That much rain in a little over 12 hrs is right up there with the top few hurricane rainfalls we've recorded here in La Manz! The GOES IR loop shows the continually erupting super thunderstorm complexes over the last few hours, along a N-S line a little offshore from us and continuing up beyond PV: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-avn.html We seem to be on the diminishing edge of the action right now, but I wouldn't go hang the laundry out quite yet. The NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/) predicts more of the same for the Cabo Corrientes vicinity for the next day or two: "ANOTHER ANTICYLONE ALOFT LIES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 18N101W AND EXTENDS A SHORT RIDGE ALONG 20N TO 107W. THE DIFFLUENT CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS ALOFT ARE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHER HERE THAN ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THIS MOSITURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG 105W N OF 14N. (snip) THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OFF THE CABO CORRIENTES COAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE LITTLE." Cabo Corrientes is the coastline that protrudes out into the Pacific between us and Puerto Vallarta, so we won't necessarily be in the center of the stormy area along this surface trough. They also now give a 10% chance of this stormy area becoming a named tropical depression or TS in the next 48 hrs: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml. Welcome to the new location of the hurricane breeding grounds! I'll let you know if anything significant develops...

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