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Heat wave: Invest 94E to the rescue?

Posted by Bret B on October 9, 2013, 5:01 pm
201.138.179.214

Yesterday we got a couple degrees of cooling and a few sprinkles that added up to 0.02". That was welcome relief after the warm, muggy and breeze-deprived spell we've been suffering since 10 days ago when Invest 92E gave us that 1.7". Donna and I encountered several heavy downpours in Manzanillo yesterday, tapering off the closer we got back to La Manzanilla (of course!)

The afternoon highs have been pretty "normal" lately: 90-91F with 65-70% RH. However, the morning lows have been warming up the last several days: now up to 80-83F, so we're not getting as much overnight cooldown as back in September.

Plenty of people I've talked to say it feels a lot hotter than the numbers would indicate. I think we're getting into the psychological weather zone this time of year, where the lack of breeze or the warmer morning lows or the "just-getting-darn-tired-of-the-heat-after-four-months" effect is at work.

Some relief may be coming! Invest 94E is developing down in the breeding grounds and has a 60% chance of getting a name in the next 2 days, and a 90% chance in the next 5 days. It is predicted to stay well off the coast as it passes our vicinity around Friday/Saturday maybe, but it might pass close enough to throw a little rain our way (and maybe more than a little.)

This time of year we also have to watch out for the storms taking a sudden right turn into the coast, like Jova did almost exactly 2 years ago. At least Jova's right turn was well-predicted. The computer models show 94E doing this, but after it passes us, only threatening Baja and Sonora. Stay tuned!

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/east-pacific/2013/invest-94E?map=model&MR=1


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