La Message Board Archives

Rodeo days weather

Posted by Bret B on February 5, 2015, 6:07 pm

I've had a few requests for a weather forecast for this big event, understandable after the unusual rains just a few days ago:

Shorter version: Sorry, but I DO see a chance for some light showers today and tonight. Hopefully not much more than a sprinkle or two, but possibly more. Bring a baggie for your camera at the Farola tonight just in case, but don't let the forecast scare you off! I don't think umbrellas would work in the crowds...

Beyond tonight I can't say, except I don't see any heavy rains threatening in the near future. The weather is too changeable right now. I'll try to post updates when I can through the weekend.

Longer version: The Weather Underground forecast, the Mexican forecast, and the GFS computer model show no rain all the way through the weekend. The other two models on the Mexican site are down right now.

However, the IR satellite loop ( ) shows lots of thick high-altitude cloudiness streaming overhead today (just look outside!) Normally that doesn't necessarily mean rain, but a few days ago it did.

When I checked the TRMM satellite data earlier today it showed a large area of significant rain and thunderstorms, but WAY down to our southwest (800-900 miles.) Usually rain down there never makes it to the coast because of our protective ridge of high pressure along the western coast of Mexico.

But the rain got a little closer during the day and then the latest data refresh from a few hours ago shows light/moderate showers within 200 miles, including a few pixels of rain within 50 miles of us:

SO the trend is getting damper right now. Hopefully it dries out and stabilizes soon! Next update tomorrow morning if I can.

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