on February 15, 2015, 7:49 am, in reply to "Re: Rain this weekend! Saturday update"187.148.141.155
|
I don't know what happened yesterday morning; maybe I didn't have my coffee before posting? The rainfall for the 24 hrs ending yesterday (Saturday) at 8AM should have said 0.5" / 12.5mm, NOT 0.1". Since then we've had nothing but a trace. It turned out to be a decent Valentine's evening, with a spectacular sunset! My forecast is getting closer to the Weather Underground forecast (they say 20% chance of rain today, but no accumulation.) I would keep the chance a little higher and a little heavier based on the computer models and the continued presence of the stream of heavy moisture still affecting us. You can see on the IR loop that the stream is weakening but still present: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-avn.html The latest TRMM data showed rains offshore a ways: http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/americas/americas_3hrly_zoom.gif  Also, the NHC discussion ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/ ) mentions this feature and uses the more "technical" name for it: "...A TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN GUERRERO TO NAYARIT THROUGH MONDAY." Must be some kind of Valentine's terminology  So I'd say maybe 30% chance of something measurable today, tapering off to nothing by late Monday. As always when we are surrounded by heavier rains, there is a slight chance that our force field could let something through and give us an inch or two. |
| 108 |
|
Message Thread
|
|
|