Slight chance of rain in next 10 days?

Posted by Bret B on March 8, 2015, 12:47 pm
187.148.141.155

Just in case anyone is planning roof work soon, I wanted to give a "heads-up". Normally March and April are rain-free for La Manzanilla. Actually the 10-years of data show no measurable rain for the 3-month span from mid-February to mid-May. But we've been having unusual weather patterns this year so far, as that rainy spell in February showed. The Weather Underground forecast predicts significant rainfall next weekend (for Barra anyway): a little bit on Friday the 13th, then upwards of an inch over Sunday, Monday, Tuesday. They also show a slight chance tomorrow (Monday) night. As always, take a BIG grain of salt with any forecasts this far in advance: http://www.wunderground.com/q/locid:MXJO0760? The Mexican ConAgua forecast predicts a chance of rain on Tuesday, but doesn't go out to next weekend yet: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/boletin/discusion/discusion.html The normally-reliable GFS computer model predicts some significant accumulations (maybe 1 inch?) not too far from us in the inland mountains on Wednesday and Thursday, but not much during next weekend: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mike/gfs/crb_p24i_loop_12.html I can't add much local guidance to these predictions yet. It's too early to be very sure, but I think it's worth crying wolf rather than getting a rude surprise while your palapa is torn down or whatever... I'll keep you posted.

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