As of 10:30am Hurricane Carlos is predicted to be very, very close to us by Tuesday. 2-6 inches of rain could be coming our way. The below came from weatherunderground.com
After an eastward jog overnight, Carlos appears to have resumed a
northwestward drift. For the rest of the weekend, a building ridge
over Mexico is expected to steer Carlos generally to the
west-northwest. Thereafter, a mid-level trough near the Baja
California peninsula should cause Carlos to turn northwestward.
However, the hurricane is now farther to the east than expected
yesterday, which has moved the track closer to the southwestern
coast of Mexico. Track guidance has been steadily shifting
eastward, and a few models are now showing landfall in Mexico. While
I am not yet ready to show that solution, the NHC prediction has
been shifted eastward to account for the greater threat to Mexico.
Accordingly, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning and Hurricane Watch for a portion of the southwestern coast.
Since Carlos is expected to remain over very warm water with
decreasing shear, it seems likely that further intensification will
occur over the next day or so. However, there is very poor
agreement on what will occur after that time due to competing
atmospheric factors and possible land interaction. The new NHC
forecast stays on the upper end of the guidance and is raised from
the previous one. It is Worth noting that the normally
conservative HWRF is above the latest NHC prediction.
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