Rain Forcast for March 18 to 28 ?
Posted by Dave on March 18, 2015, 12:21 pm
Hey Bret, Could you please do your magic and please try to give us a educated prediction on the RAIN Forcast for Next week ? , Heard some rambling that Mexico in General may expect allot more rain... Gracias in advance | ------------------------Re: Rain Forcast - small chance of rain this weekend?
Posted by Bret B on March 18, 2015, 5:55 pm, in reply to "Rain Forcast for March 18 to 28 ?" 187.148.43.133
I was actually working on that for my own reasons, Dave. Great timing! I've been busy with other things today, but I think I have enough to go with now. By the way, I can't really look much beyond the next few days. Certainly not 10 days. (I wish!) Summary: I think we have a small chance of rain this Thursday (tomorrow), Friday and Saturday. Maybe 20%? But no heavy rain; less than 1/2" per day? Then the chance of rain decreases after that to roughly zero out as far as I can see (early next week?) A few details: > The W. U. says <10% chance the next 3 days, then back to zero. That would be great, but I think the other resources need to be considered also (keep reading.) http://www.wunderground.com/q/locid:MXJO0760?MR=1 > The Mexican CONAGUA forecast ( http://smn.cna.gob.mx/boletin/discusion/discusion.html )issued just a few hours ago has parts of Jalisco getting a 60-80% chance of 0-1" per day on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. They also mention some of the same features that led to our last deluge: a new cold-cored low pressure system (Winter Storm #10) forming up around Tijuana, and copious Pacific moisture being swept up to our coastline by an arm of the sub-tropical jet stream. The good news is that these features seem to be weaker and drier than last week. But just call me gun-shy, but I can't dismiss these features down to near-zero like the W.U. does. > The GFS model ( http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mike/gfs/crb_p24i_loop_12.html ) shows an arm of rain reaching for us from the southwest for the next 3 days. It never touches us, but that's too close for a zero-rain forecast. > This graphic ( http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec3.html ) shows the arm of rain similar to the GFS model. It actually tries to forecast the total rain accumulation for the next 8 days, and then below it is another graphic predicting the following 8 days. Big grain of salt with that one!
| ------------------------Re: Rain Forcast - small chance of rain this weekend?
Posted by Daniel H on March 19, 2015, 5:51 am, in reply to "Re: Rain Forcast - small chance of rain this weekend?" 189.164.217.49
At least this time one can go to the satellite loop and see some clouds coming, unlike last storm when they were predicting rain and there was not a cloud to be seen. | ------------------------Thur update: weekend rain forecast
Posted by Bret B on March 19, 2015, 2:04 pm, in reply to "Rain Forcast for March 18 to 28 ?" 187.148.43.133
(Lately I've been delaying my forecasts until after 12:00 noon, when the Mexican CONAGUA site releases their daily report.) Combining all my online weather resources along with my guesswork, my rain forecast for the next 3-4 days looks about the same as in yesterday's post: slight chance (20%) of light rains for tomorrow and Saturday. Sunday & Monday look drier: less than 10%? Short-term forecast for the rest of today: medium chance (30-40%?) of sprinkles or light showers. This is supported by the thickening cloudiness streaming closer and closer to us today visually (as in Mark's Weather Right Now), and on the IR loop ( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-avn.html ). And the latest TRMM rainfall data from a few hours ago (1500Z) shows showers that were thickening and joining up in a line that was slowly edging closer to us. The main showers were about 120 miles away in this data, but some lighter rains were already reaching the coast near PV: ( http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/americas/americas_3hrly_zoom.gif ) My guesswork is worth about what you pay for it; remember that last week my rain total forecast was 5-10 times too low More tomorrow, if I have time... | ------------------------
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