Posted by Chuck Willer on October 23, 2015, 12:56 am, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Patricia"
98.232.236.28
HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
The purpose of this special advisory is to update for a significant increase in the intensity of the hurricane. Reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Patricia has intensified at an
incredible rate since yesterday. The plane measured peak 700-mb flight level winds of 179 kt in the northeastern eyewall, and this may be an unprecedented value for a tropical cyclone. Using the 90 percent adjustment value to convert this to a surface wind speed yields an intensity estimate of 160 kt, which is tied with eastern north Pacific Hurricane Linda of 1997 for the strongest on record.
A dropsonde released into the eye measured a sea-level pressure of 894 mb with 25 kt of wind. Adjusting this pressure for the surface winds (i.e. the drop did not land into the actual center of the eye)gives an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb, which breaks the record for the lowest pressure of an east Pacific hurricane.
Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today due to eyewall replacements, but Patricia should maintain category 5 status through landfall this afternoon or evening.
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