Re: Bud mostly dead, and post-mortem report

Posted by Bret B on May 26, 2012, 10:10 am, in reply to "Re: Hurricane update: maybe past the wind threat"
187.146.127.137

Bud is down to a remnant low, slowly heading north past Cabo Corrientes (just S. of PV.) It isn't supposed to come back our way anymore, and it still looks like nothing on the GOES IR loop. The TRMM radar satellite shows only some light to moderate rains in the last few hours offshore of Cabo Corrientes and PV. All watches and warnings have been lifted. By the way, have you noticed that the Voice of God tower in the jardin blasted out the same "Orange Alert" notice every hour on the hour yesterday, but no "danger has passed, return to your normal lives" notice? I think the rain threat from Bud has ended for La Manz. So why did Bud fizzle so suddenly yesterday afternoon, while the NHC still made it sound like it had circulation and winds and a center to be tracked and everything? I think their models have "rate of weakening" limits built into them, and didn't allow the composite forecast to follow Bud's very rapid weakening. Today's 2AM PDT technical discussion mentions this. While I was typing this post, the 2AM discussion was replaced by the 8AM PDT discussion. They finally admit Bud had been dead for a while: "BASED ON THE LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 15 HOURS...BUD IS ASSESSED TO BE A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE CENTER...IF THERE IS ONE...IS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE...AND THE ADVISORY POSITION WAS DETERMINED LARGELY FROM CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND MODEST HINTS IN A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE PASSES. THE CENTER COULD BE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...NOT THAT IT MATTERS MUCH. ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH BUD...BUT THAT THREAT IS ALSO RAPIDLY DIMINISHING." ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/260843.shtml? ) If you ever want to go back and read previous NHC notices or discussions, go to the Archive for that storm, in this case Bud: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/refresh/BUD+shtml/143406.shtml? And this might explain why I couldn't see the rotating storm after noon yesterday on the GOES IR loop: "all of the dynamical models show that Bud likely has decoupled and that the mid-level vortex is now displaced inland well east of the surface circulation." (From the 2AM PDT discussion.) The IR loop only shows cold high-altitude (normally unstable and violent) cloud tops. With a healthy hurricane these cloud tops are linked to the surface circulation and winds and rain. But not after it becomes "decoupled," presumably by the wind shear and dry air intrusion they predicted yesterday. I think the odd behavior of Bud overstressed their computer modeling. It just couldn't keep up. Maybe they'll improve the models for these oddball storms. Until next time...

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