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Re: Hurricane Jova - Monday PM update

Posted by Bret B on October 10, 2011, 7:24 pm, in reply to "Hurricane Jova"

Sorry for the delay: I was finishing up our preparations here at the house.)

It's still heading more and more our way!

ALERTS: No change.
1. We're still under a "yellow" alert (the tower spoke today around 9:00AM, and again about 3PM.)
2. We're still under a Hurricane Warning. That means that a hurricane is expected, and tropical storm conditions are LIKELY in the warning area (making outside preparations difficult) within the next 36 hrs.

WHERE: Worse:
The latest track centerline shows landfall directly on La Manzanilla, and the track error radius is shrinking but still is plus or minus 75 miles (120 km.) That means it COULD land anywhere from the Colima/Michoacan border to offshore of Puerto Vallarta. At 4PM it was 194 miles (312 km) SW of us. The NHC track-forecsting models are still not in good agreement on this track. That's why there is still significant doubt (error radius) regarding the landfall point.

WHEN: Not much change:
Landfall time is predicted to be Tuesday night (around midnight), but even that still has an (unknown) error window.

STRENGTH: Worse at landfall:
It's still a Category 3 storm right now with 125mph/201kph winds in the eye wall, and is still projected grow to Cat 4, then back down to Cat 3 with 115mph/185kph winds a couple hours AFTER landfall. That means it would be even stronger than that at landfall.

SIZE: About the same at landfall:
Tropical storm force winds (greater than 39mph/63kph) are predicted to extend out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center at landfall. Hurricane winds out to 30 miles (48km) from center.

Wind probabilities: shows that our chance of getting hurricane winds (74mph/119kph) here in La Manz are now 45%, and chance of tropical storm winds (39mph/63kph) is still >90%.

Possible Hazards per the NHC: (
Hazards affecting land
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to affect the
coast of Mexico within the hurricane and Tropical Storm Warning
areas by Tuesday morning. Hurricane conditions are forecast to
reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area by Tuesday

Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast...the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Rainfall...Jova is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches over the states of michoaca...Colima...and
Jalisco...with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud

Surf...swells generated by Jova are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


More tomorrow morning if the power is still on. Good luck everyone, and stay safe!

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