Re: RAIN? and TS Elida - Tropical Storm Warning

Posted by Bret B on June 30, 2014, 10:37 am, in reply to "RAIN?"
201.138.176.170

I think you might be right Daniel. Just a couple minutes ago Invest 97E was upgraded to Tropical Storm Elida, and its center was re-analyzed to be quite a bit closer to the Michoacán coast. It's predicted to get a little closer to the Colima coast then slow down and wander for a couple days then head off to the west, remaining a tropical storm. We may get tropical storm force winds (NHC says 50% chance for our location), and probably will get heavy rains, possibly starting later today. TROPICAL STORM WARNING (warning area includes La Manzanilla): (Excerpt from NHC Public Advisory( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/301444.shtml? ): "...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED..." "THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES." "HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. RAINFALL...ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA AND MICHOACAN...AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF JALISCO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE." Here's the predicted track. Note the large circles of uncertainty denoting the probable locations of the storm center: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2014/Tropical-Storm-Elida? Here's the latest TRMM satellite rain radar data from a few hours ago showing the heavy rains in TS Elida to our south: http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/americas/americas_3hrly_zoom.gif

293