Tropical storm outlook: chance of rain?
Posted by Bret B on August 9, 2012, 10:10 am
I'm sure I'm not the only one wishing for some rain to break the heat; yesterday the heat index hit 119F, the highest this summer. Ouch! The good news is there is an increasing chance for some rain soon (not counting the random luck of getting a nighttime thunderstorm of course.) It might start by tomorrow and could go off and on through Saturday, and maybe Sunday. I don't think it will be super-heavy, but anything is better than what we've been getting! Here are the gory details: |
TS Ernesto is still on track to smear itself out on the mountains of south-central Mexico:
Some of the models show a chance of at least some of its remnants making it across Mexico into our pond and then travelling up the coast past us:
And the tecnical discussion from the NHC mentions this:
"SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC RELATED TO THE ADVANCE OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE S CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. (snip) LOOKING AHEAD TO BEYOND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS TO INCLUDE THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO...NOW RACING W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...EMERGING OVER THE PACIFIC OFF MEXICO FRI AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY NEAR 18N107W BY LATE SAT."
That "deepening" means strengthening, and those coordinates puts the remnants not too far west of us on Saturday.
And another Invest (93E) MIGHT follow along after Ernesto's remnants. A couple model members show it passing by us Monday or Tuesday (take this with a good-sized grain of salt, though):
Finally, the Mexican CONAGUA 72-hr rainfall accumulation forecast shows a lot of rain offshore along the coastlines of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, but with some falling on land also:
|By posting, you confirm that you have read and |
Be sure to visit www.lamanzanilla.info