4 PM update:

Posted by deanna on June 20, 2011, 4:53 pm, in reply to "Re: The Hurricane Hunters have arrived!"
187.146.81.39

No big changes in this update - still not at hurricane strength but on it's way. Wind is really picking up here and Beatriz is still very far south - if you haven't already buttoned up, it's time! Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on June 20, 2011 ...Beatriz near hurricane strength...Hurricane Warning extended northwestward to Cabo Corrientes... location...17.0n 103.1w about 90 mi...145 km SW of Lazaro Cardenas Mexico about 160 mi...255 km SSE of Manzanillo Mexico maximum sustained winds...70 mph...110 km/h present movement...NNW or 330 degrees at 8 mph...13 km/h minimum central pressure...989 mb...29.21 inches Discussion and 48-hour outlook ------------------------------ at 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Beatriz was located near latitude 17.0 north...longitude 103.1 west. Beatriz is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/h. A north-northwestward or northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected in the next 36 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Beatriz will approach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Tuesday. However...any deviation to the right of the forecast track could bring the center onshore in the warning area. Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph...110km/h...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely during the next 36 hours...and Beatriz is forecast to become a hurricane tonight. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km from the center. **** Hazards affecting land ---------------------- wind...hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area in the next few hours ...making outside preparations difficult ordangerous. Rainfall...Beatriz is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches along the coasts of the states of Guerrero...Jalisco...Colima...and michoacan in southwestern Mexico...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over mountainous terrain. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Storm surge...a storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Next advisory ------------- next intermediate advisory...500 PM PDT. Next complete advisory...800 PM PDT. **** Take a look at this graphic - in conjunction with the statement starred above: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/204013.shtml?tswind120#contents

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